Cobie: It is uncertain whether Bitcoin's returns are diminishing, but the difficulty and risks of trading altcoins will continue to rise

Crypto KOL Cobie tweeted that it is uncertain whether Bitcoin will continue to provide diminishing returns, but altcoin trading (on average) will become increasingly difficult and dangerous, marking an irreversible trend. The reasons include:

• Intense and increasingly mature competition among buyers, along with a decrease in conviction;
• Primarily through perpetual contracts and leveraged trading;
• Market capitalization is generally overestimated and severely diluted;
• The FDV at launch captures all optimistic sentiment, ignoring price and valuation;
• Excessive price discovery in the pre-market leads to insecurity.

In 2017, buyers purchased spot and held for weeks/months, driven by strong conviction and adding positions during the uptrend, with early low valuations proving effective. In 2025, buyers purchase through perpetual contracts without assessing valuations, selling when losses turn negative or during forced liquidations. However, altcoins still represent the best return area for smart investors, where skill expression and asset selection are more important, and patience yields better returns in liquidity markets compared to "early" entry.