QCP Capital: OG holders taking profits puts pressure on Bitcoin

Singapore's crypto investment firm QCP Capital published an analysis stating that the crypto market has had an unstable start, with Bitcoin's price dropping from $110,000 to $107,000 during the Asian session, continuing its downward trend.

On-chain data shows that OG holders have transferred a large amount of Bitcoin to Kraken, continuing the outflow seen in October, which may explain Bitcoin's first "Red October" since 2018. The recent sell-off lacks clear macro drivers, even as other risk assets perform well under favorable policies. Over the past week, market volatility has slightly increased, with skewness leaning towards put options, but concerns about a significant downturn remain mild.

Leverage has been largely cleared, perpetual contract open interest is low, and funding rates are stable. Over the past month, the market has absorbed about 405,000 Bitcoins from OG holders, with prices not falling below $100,000. Despite a slowdown in purchases by listed companies and some small digital asset reserve companies selling off, spot prices still have support.

The consolidation of Bitcoin has sparked speculation about whether this cycle is nearing its end, and whether this signals the arrival of a new crypto winter remains unclear. Currently, long-term holders are taking profits, while institutional capital inflows and application promotions are solidifying the market foundation.