The price of Bitcoin is approaching the fair range, with about 40% of the chips in a state of floating loss

Analyst Murphy stated that Bitcoin is approaching its fair value of approximately $98,000 after a recent decline. This value is calculated based on the historical average level of the MVRV metric, representing the central range of market valuation regression. The current BTC price has a very small gap from the average cost of active chips, indicating that the market bubble has almost been completely digested.

Murphy pointed out that if the market remains rational, value buying should appear in this range; if it continues to decline, it may enter an irrational phase or a confidence collapse range. Data shows that the proportion of Bitcoin's profitable supply (PSIP) is 72%, which is at the extreme range of a bull market correction (70%--75%). If we exclude Satoshi and lost BTC, the proportion of underwater chips is close to 40%. Additionally, the proportion of long-term holders at a loss has significantly increased, indicating that the market may have entered a cyclical bottom range. Analysts believe that if this round of correction is not the extreme of a bull market adjustment, it may signal the beginning of a new bear cycle.