QCP: The Fed's dovish remarks boost the market, with December rate cut expectations rising to 75%

QCP's briefing indicates that after dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials Williams and Miran on Friday, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown initial signs of recovery. The market's expectations for a rate cut in December have significantly increased from 30-40% last Thursday to 75%. Although BTC has recently fallen over 30% and broken through several key support levels, the technical outlook remains weak, but the derivatives market shows that traders are betting on both sides: hedging against further declines while keeping exposure for a potential year-end rebound.

The maximum pain point price for year-end options in the market is 104K, with open interest reaching an all-time high. In the perpetual contract market, leveraged long positions have mostly been cleared, and the funding rate has turned negative, which may alleviate further overselling risks. This week during Thanksgiving will test whether the BTC rebound is sustainable, and the market is also closely watching whether ETF fund flows will start to reverse after several weeks of record outflows.