Bitcoin Eases But Stays at High Level; Trump Adds Support to Crypto — Market Talk

0806 GMT - Bitcoin eases on profit-taking, though it stays close to a one-week high reached overnight. The rise came after President Trump signed an executive order that directs the U.S. Secretary of Labor to review the guidance around alternative assets. The order lays the groundwork to add cryptocurrencies, private equity, real estate and other alternative assets into U.S. 401(k) retirement accounts. Bitcoin rallied on the news but has since pulled back slightly as ongoing uncertainty over U.S. trade policy keeps investors cautious on risky assets. Bitcoin falls 0.2% $116,937 after earlier reaching a high of $117,964, LSEG data show.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0752 GMT - Yields on benchmark 10-year German government bonds, or Bunds, are likely to stay calm on Friday, following Thursday's volatility after the Bank of England voted narrowly for an interest-rate cut, Commerzbank Research strategists say in a note. "As both data and supply calendars are completely depleted today, we expect a modest intra-day range today with yields tentatively drifting higher," they say. Yields on short-dated German government bonds rose on Thursday, tracking moves in U.K. gilt yields due to reduced expectations of BOE interest-rate cuts.The 10-year Bund yield stabilizes after rising on Thursday and last trades little changed at 2.645%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0741 GMT - The Bank of England's tone is shifting, heralding a slower pace of easing of monetary policy ahead, Deutsche Bank's Sanjay Raja writes. The U.K. central bank on Thursday lowered its key bank rate to 4.00% from 4.25%, a move widely expected. But the vote split was narrower than expected and the bank struck a more cautious note on inflation. The BOE appears to be taking it down a gear, Raja says."While the direction of Bank Rate remains downward, in our view, the next few months mark a murkier path ahead," he says. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)

0725 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds rise following Thursday's Bank of England expected decision to cut interest rates. Policymakers signalled a potential for fewer interest-rate cuts in future than markets had previously expected. The vote was tight, with four out of nine members favoring holding rates. This, alongside the discussion in the post-meeting press conference, indicated less support for rate cuts due to concerns about persistent inflation, RBC Capital Markets strategists say in a note. The 10-year gilt yield rises 1 basis point to last trade at 4.564%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0708 GMT - Sterling has limited scope for a sustained advance given the outlook for weak U.K. growth combined with elevated inflation, or stagflation, MUFG Bank's analysts say in a note. Sterling rose after the Bank of England cut interest rates as expected Thursday but four out of five members voted to leave rates steady and the BOE reiterated its guidance for gradual cuts. However, a central bank that is curtailed from cutting rates due to sticky inflation isn't a reason to be optimistic, the analysts say. "The stagflationary tilt is hardly a positive for investor sentiment." Sterling falls 0.1% to $1.3424 after reaching a 10-day high of $1.3448 Thursday, LSEG data show. The euro trades flat at 0.8673 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0705 GMT - Treasury yields rise after Thursday's auction of 30-year notes received weak demand. The auction saw $25 billion of bonds issued 2.1 basis points above the pre-sale yield, Deutsche Bank analysts say in a note. It followed lukewarm demand at a 10-year Treasury auction. The analysts say demand for Treasurys has waned after recent weak U.S. jobs data caused yields to fall. President Trump's decision to nominate Stephen Miran to temporarily join the Federal Reserve board has also weighed on Treasurys, Deutsche Bank says. Miran has criticized Fed policy under current chair Jerome Powell. The yield on 10-year Treasurys rises 1 basis point to 4.256%, while 30-year yields rise nearly two basis points to 4.830%, Tradeweb data show. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

0632 GMT - The dollar falls after President Trump said he would nominate Stephen Miran to temporarily join the Federal Reserve's board of governors. Miram is chair of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers. He will take over the seat from Fed governor Adriana Kugler, who unexpectedly announced her resignation last week. Markets expect his potential alignment with Trump's push for lower interest rates, Danske Bank analysts say in a note. "Miran has expressed skepticism about the Fed's independence and has argued for stronger presidential control over the Fed Board," they say. He is also the author of the Mar-A-Lago Accord, a plan to devalue the dollar. The DXY dollar index falls 0.2% to 98.196 after reaching a 10-day low of 97.945 Thursday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0546 GMT - U.S. core CPI likely rose 0.32% on month in July, which would lift the on-year rate to 3.0% from 2.9%, says Tom Kenny, economist at ANZ. The reciprocal tariff rates set by the Trump administration in early April have now been implemented for most countries. The effective tariff rate on imported goods is around 20% currently, and Kenny expects some impact from tariffs on inflation in July relative to recent months. Still, it is appropriate for the U.S. central bank to cut the fed-funds rate at the September meeting, given a recent cooling in labor-market conditions and a return of core services inflation to longer-run trends, he adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0533 GMT - The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to cut the official cash rate by 25 bps to 3.6% on Tuesday. The overall tone of the statement will likely be neutral with a dovish lean, says Faraz Syed, economist at Citigroup. Forecast revisions pointing to slightly higher unemployment and lower inflation in 2026 could lead to a slightly more dovish lean compared with prior statements, he adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0516 GMT - The Bank of Thailand will likely stand pat on monetary policy next week but strike a dovish tone, according to two economists at UOB's Global Economics & Markets Research. The central bank assesses that 50 bps of total easing year to date offers enough policy impulse for the economy to cushion domestic and external headwinds, the economists say in a note. UOB's baseline view is for the BOT to resume its easing cycle, with 25bp rate cuts at each meeting in October and December, followed by an additional move in 1Q. "We judge that incremental monetary accommodation is now warranted as the economy's two principal engines--external demand and private consumption--lose traction amid heightened downside risks," they add. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0359 GMT - China may make concessions in ongoing trade talks with the U.S., according to BofA economists Anna Zhou and Helen Qiao in a research note. Recent U.S. trade deals with Japan, South Korea and other nations revealed common elements that could apply to talks with Beijing, they say. Like those countries, China could offer similar concessions, such as increasing purchases of U.S. goods, they note. There is still scope for China to import more energy and agriculture products from the U.S., BofA says. A partial or full removal of the fentanyl-related tariffs is also possible if China makes an attractive offer, they note. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0320 GMT - The Malaysian ringgit is likely to hold near 4.23 against the dollar, supported by domestic economic stability and a softer greenback, Kenanga economists say in a note. However, Trump's proposed tariffs on chips and pharmaceuticals may dampen sentiment in riskier assets, they say, adding that investors are also watching tensions within BRICS and signs of tension in U.S.-China trade relations. Trump's rapid-fire policy moves and headline-driven volatility continue to add uncertainty. Markets now turn to coming U.S. inflation data; if inflation surprises on the upside, investors may again reassess the Fed's trajectory, adding to near-term market volatility, they add. USD/MYR faces resistance at 4.24 and support at 4.22 in the short term, they add. USD/MYR is flat at 4.2345. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)