Polymarket bettors lean towards Bitcoin below $100,000 by 2026, analysts weigh chances

The Block

Aug 28, 2025 05:24:02

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While some analysts can see Bitcoin hitting $200,000 before 2026, a majority of Polymarket bettors are wagering that the world's largest cryptocurrency falls below $100,000 by the end of the year.

As of Wednesday, traders wagering on whether or not Bitcoin will dip below $100,000 this year, put the chances of the event occurring at 61% likely. That's down from Monday, when 72% of bettors expected BTC to trade under $100,000 again this year.

It appears Monday more people on Polymarket may have been confident that Bitcoin will sink below $100,000 by year's end after BTC fell under the $110,000 for the first time in over six weeks.

"So far, large sell-offs by whales and long-term holders have been met with sufficient buy-side demand — especially from corporate treasuries and institutional allocators," Presto Research Analyst Min Jung told The Block. "However, if these large holders begin to unwind positions more aggressively, the key question becomes whether there are enough new entrants to absorb that supply. If demand fails to keep pace, a break below $100,000 becomes more plausible."

Bitcoin, fresh off reaching some new all-time highs, hasn't traded below $100,000 since June. The cryptocurrency was changing hands at $112,081.24 as of 5:19 p.m. ET, according to The Block Price Page.

Bitcoin whale swap

Last week, a Bitcoin whale created some significant downside pressure when they swapped 22,400 BTC for ETH. While long-term holders selling Bitcoin can create market volatility, demand has kept pace, buoying BTC's price.

"Bitcoin selloffs are signs of a maturing market," 21Shares Crypto Investment Specialist David Hernandez told The Block. "Paradoxically, while a sharp correction could undermine near-term enthusiasm, it could also catalyze a healthier market by redistributing supply from concentrated whales and corporates into a broader base of retail and institutional hands, ultimately strengthening Bitcoin’s long-term foundation."

DAT demand appears to be holding steady. On Wednesday, Metaplanet said it planned to raise 130 billion yen ($880 million) via an international share sale and deploy ¥124 billion ($837 million) into bitcoin acquisitions between September and October 2025. Top Bitcoin DAT Strategy said Monday it had bought over 3,000 bitcoin, lifting its corporate bitcoin treasury to about 632,000 BTC.

Bitcoin price weakness

Also from this week, K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde said more Bitcoin price weakness could be on the horizon amid a leverage surge.

Notional open interest in bitcoin perpetual futures has surged to a two-year high of over 310,000 BTC ($34 billion) — up 41,607 BTC in the last two months alone — with a sharp weekend acceleration of 13,472 BTC marking a potential inflection point, said Lunde said in a report from this week. The spike, paired with a jump in annualized funding rates from 3% to nearly 11%, signals increasingly aggressive long positioning at a time of relative price stagnation, he explained.

According to Lunde, the conditions resemble leverage build-ups seen in the summers of 2023 and 2024, both of which ended with sharp liquidation cascades in August.

Potentially positive catalysts

21Shares' Hernandez, who doesn't expect Bitcoin to dip under $100,000 this year, sees some moves on the regulatory and fiscal policy fronts potentially serving to push BTC higher.

"We think it’s important for investors to pay attention to the pro-crypto Clarity Act, which has been passed by the House and is on its way to the Senate, as well as initiatives by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) and SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) to 'make the US the crypto capital of the world,'" he said.

The prospect of rate cuts from the Fed next month is also a strong positive catalyst for BTC and other risk assets," Hernandez added. "If a rate cut does materialize, it could send Bitcoin, and other risk assets, higher."

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