Data: BTC trend will usher in a normalization of short-term bull and bear markets, and investor trend confidence is returning to positive

ChainCatcher news, on-chain data analyst Murphy stated that according to the Glassnode Investor Trend Confidence Index, historical data shows that even if the investor confidence index returns from the hesitation zone to the positive zone, it does not necessarily mean that BTC will form a new upward trend. Similar to July 2023 and June 2024, the limits of the rebounds were near previous highs.

The current market is very confusing. Although it has been proven that even buying at highs and holding firmly can yield subsequent gains, how many investors can truly hold their positions firmly? Whenever the Glassnode Investor Trend Confidence Index shifts from positive to hesitant, it serves as a reminder that market confidence may be reversing and the trend could be coming to an end. Whether BTC will continue to follow a four-year cycle remains unknown to all market participants, including institutions.

Short-term bull and bear phases may become a normalized measure of BTC's future trends. The previous methods of describing bull and bear cycles using -70% declines or several times increases will become ineffective.