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Arthur Hayes: If the U.S. Treasury's TGA account reaches $850 billion, the crypto market will enter a "only up" mode

Sep 21, 2025 08:21:53

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ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that once the U.S. Treasury reaches its goal of injecting $850 billion into the TGA (Treasury General Account), the crypto market will enter a "only up" mode.

Hayes wrote at the time when the U.S. TGA's beginning balance surpassed $807 billion: "With the end of liquidity depletion, the 'only up' trend will re-emerge."

When the Treasury fills its general account, the funds are typically isolated and do not flow into the private market. However, not all analysts believe Hayes's prediction that once the U.S. Treasury reaches its goal, liquidity will flow into the financial markets.

André Dragosch, Head of European Research at investment firm Bitwise, responded: "However, the correlation between net liquidity and Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is at best loose. In my view, this is simply a futile effort."

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