Analysis: This round of market has approached the bull-bear boundary three times but has not broken through. The current fair price of BTC is $97,000

ChainCatcher message, on-chain analyst Murphy stated that the fair price of Bitcoin is calculated as the historical average of mvrv. If the market's valuation level (mvrv) is at the historical average state, then the price of BTC should be around this level; therefore, the fair price is considered a "mean reversion center." Over the past 10 years in BTC's three previous cycles, the fair price (blue line) has almost acted as the boundary line between bull and bear markets.

After the bull market starts, BTC is unlikely to drop below the blue line even if there are pullbacks; whenever value reverts, it triggers strong buying. In this cycle, BTC has been operating above the fair price for nearly 2 years. During this period, there have been 3 instances very close to the blue line: the "good news turns bad" after the ETF approval; the closing of the yen carry trade in August 2024; and the tariff crisis in April 2025. However, it has never dropped below the fair price. Under the foundation of the bull market, BTC returning to the fair price is the best buying point.

Currently, the blue line is at $97,000. If traders believe the foundation of the bull market is still intact, then buying when BTC approaches $97,000 would be highly cost-effective. If users believe we have entered a bear market, they can continue to wait for deeper bear moments, perhaps having the opportunity to pick up cheap chips below $55,000. This analysis is for learning and communication purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.