Alliance DAO Co-founder: The top of the crypto 4-year cycle is emerging, and the AI bubble in the US stock market will dominate the ups and downs

Alliance DAO co-founder QwQiao recently stated that despite macro factors such as the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE), the rebuilding of the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA), and interest rate cuts pointing to a market rise, intuitively, everything feels like it has ended. QwQiao describes crypto as a self-fulfilling asset class, emphasizing the inevitability of the four-year cycle prophecy, which puts the market at a frustrating crossroads. As a long-term optimist, he has felt uneasy about the crypto market since mid-September and has observed that most smart traders and long-term investors have turned bearish.

Turning to U.S. stocks, QwQiao views artificial intelligence (AI) as the sole dominant factor in the cycle, far surpassing liquidity indicators and technical signals. He warns that if the AI bubble bursts, the entire market will collapse; conversely, if AI-related stocks continue to rise, the bears will be completely wrong. He compares NVIDIA (NVDA) to Bitcoin in crypto, pointing out that when AI stocks (especially NVIDIA) rise, funds flow out of crypto and other assets, leading to a decline in crypto, and vice versa, creating a binary pattern of AI stocks vs everything else.

In niche sectors, QwQiao is optimistic about the growth momentum of stablecoin startups, believing it far exceeds the pace of AI startups, mainly due to the scarcity of competition in the stablecoin market, while the AI vertical has become crowded with over 50 players. This year, his U.S. stock investment returns have significantly outperformed crypto, and he has avoided high-growth but inefficient AI stocks, instead favoring quality companies at reasonable prices.