Preview: Tonight's battle over the unemployment rate and non-farm data will become a key catalyst for future market trends

The non-farm payroll data for September, originally scheduled to be released on October 3, has been delayed until tonight due to the U.S. government shutdown. Before the shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics had completed the collection and statistical work on the data, so there will not be any systemic bias in the data itself, and the impact on data quality is limited. In the previous October FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve further cut interest rates in the absence of sufficient reference data, but did not commit to the subsequent rate cut path. Powell stated at that time that a rate cut in December was not "set in stone," and the October rate cut was a "risk management cut," while also implying significant internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve.

As the first important economic data released after the end of the U.S. government shutdown (albeit delayed), if it provides new signals, it could become a key catalyst for the subsequent market trend. The important macroeconomic data to be released tonight at 9:30 PM Beijing time includes: U.S. unemployment rate for September, U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for September, and the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending November 15.