Greeks.live: From the overall options data, a short-term bottom has formed, but volatility expectations remain high

Greeks.live researcher Adam posted on social media, "In the third quarter, we observed that the options market was clearly optimistic about the fourth quarter. Even during the late August when Bitcoin prices continued to decline, the open interest for Q4 options remained bullish. We referred to it as the Q4 rally or Christmas rally at that time; however, the crash on October 11 and the continued decline in November have shattered the previous market structure. In the current market context, the voices calling for new highs in the fourth quarter have completely disappeared, and a pessimistic atmosphere is spreading.

Although this week RV, IV, and 25D Skew have shown a downward trend, the market's panic has not dissipated, and the mid to long-term options data for the end of the year and into next year still points to bearishness. With the monthly expiration approaching, there has been significant price volatility this month, leading to strong demand from whales for rolling positions.

From the overall data, a short-term bottom has formed, and the options market's preference for the recent continuous decline has weakened, indicating a larger expectation for short-term market fluctuations. However, the market in the last month of this year remains dangerous, and volatility expectations are still high."