Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Bull-Bear Game in the Market -- Key Nodes and Investment Strategies for 2026 | MyToken AMA Review

The market continues to fluctuate, with intense battles between bulls and bears. On December 18, an online AMA hosted by the well-known data platform MyToken brought together four seasoned observers from different segments of the industry chain. They shared unique insights from various perspectives on macro breakthroughs, retail survival, and future tracks, engaging in fierce exchanges of viewpoints, providing investors with multidimensional thinking.

Guest Introductions

• Augustine (@CicadaAugustine): Head of CicadaBD, Cicada is an institution focused on providing market making, liquidity provision, and OTC fiat deposit and withdrawal services for exchanges and projects.
• Predator (@Predator_fund): 30 years of financial trading experience, engaged in quantitative trading since 2011, focusing on Bitcoin and mainstream coin strategies.
• Christine (@ChristineKTX): CMO of KTX Exchange, KTX is an exchange aimed at professional traders while being friendly to newcomers. Recently launched on-chain trading tools, dedicated to empowering retail investors.
• Dikson Lau (@DicksonLau2): Chief Growth Officer of Anome Protocol, responsible for Anome's brand and user growth.

Core Insights Overview

Macroeconomic Changes: When Will the Market Stalemate Break?

The current market is shrouded in fog, facing a complex situation intertwined with multiple macro events. When the host asked about the macro key events that could break the current market stalemate, the guests turned their attention to the chess game of the traditional financial world.

• Augustine believes that change is imminent: the upcoming U.S. CPI data, the historic interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, and potential personnel changes at the Federal Reserve led by Trump could become key catalysts determining the short-term direction of the market as these decisions are expected to be implemented before the end of the year.
• Quantitative Predator proposed a bold prediction that subverts the generally optimistic expectations of the market. With the large-scale entry of Wall Street institutions, the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, may bid farewell to the past volatility of "meme coins" and enter a long-term consolidation phase similar to gold (e.g., fluctuating within a range of $70,000 to $120,000), a process that could last for years. This means that the investment logic relying solely on historical patterns like halving cycles needs to be re-evaluated. The inability of numerous positive factors to boost the market is precisely a signal that the market needs to "feel downwards" and seek a new balance.
• Dickson & Christine both believe that the interest rate hike in Japan is a key variable; if it materializes, it will impact global liquidity. The market has already digested expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, so the impact is limited.

Retail Survival: How to Survive in an Institutional Era?

As market dominance gradually shifts to institutions, how should ordinary investors position themselves? The four guests provided distinctly different but fundamentally consistent answers: give up illusions, risk control is king.

• Augustine's advice is pragmatic and fundamental: when the direction is unclear, the primary task is to "at least outpace inflation." He encourages retail investors to utilize all reliable channels (such as exchange wealth management or mainstream DeFi protocols) to achieve "earning interest on holdings," converting idle funds into interest-bearing assets, which is a bottom-line thinking to navigate through bull and bear markets.
• Predator contributed highly actionable specific "strategies." He shared two classic strategies: one is the "Claude Shannon-style" half-position dynamic balancing method, always maintaining a 50% value in Bitcoin and 50% in stablecoins. By mechanically rebalancing, it achieves high selling and low buying, eliminating emotional trading; the second is using coin-based contracts for "defensive counterattacks," operating mainly by shorting at highs and going long at lows in a volatile market, accumulating profits through the positive fee rate of contracts. He emphasized that in this era, "sticking your neck out" (exposing excessive risk) is dangerous, and survival is more important than being aggressive.
• From the project side's risk warning—Dikson of Anome calls for rationality from another angle. He repeatedly emphasizes that the first lesson of investing is "how not to lose money," rather than how to make money. He reminds investors not to include "getting rich overnight" in the probability calculations of any strategy, as that is akin to gambling. In the current environment, preserving capital and participating cautiously while waiting for certain opportunities is a wiser choice than blindly charging ahead.
• From the exchange's empowering perspective—Christine of KTX offers a solution from the product level. She believes that retail investors cannot compete with institutions in terms of capital and information, but they can narrow the gap through tools. She revealed that KTX is committed to developing AI and data-based strategy suggestion tools aimed at providing retail investors with institutional-level market insights. At the same time, she believes that simple spot trading, following excellent traders, and participating in DeFi staking are still effective ways for retail investors to achieve controllable returns.

Future Tracks: Finding Real Value Amidst Noisy Narratives

What will be the next story to ignite the market? The guests had interesting divergences in their views, revealing deep differences in market perceptions.

• Predator cast a "doubt vote" on almost all popular narratives. He sharply pointed out that many tracks, from GameFi and SocialFi to the current RWA and AI, are "designed to harvest retail investors," unrelated to truly great financial innovations. He believes that real RWA should involve sovereign-level or strictly regulated giant games, rather than grassroots projects.
• Dickson expressed cautious optimism about the "prediction market" track. He believes this track captures the eternal gambling demand in human nature, just as esports thrives on gambling; prediction markets naturally possess the attraction of capital accumulation. However, he also warns that for any new narrative, one should only "experiment with small amounts of capital," and absolutely avoid going all-in.
• Christine represents the pragmatic application outlook. She believes the real value of RWA for retail investors lies in providing a "channel" for conveniently investing in traditional assets like U.S. stocks using cryptocurrencies. She is more optimistic about the next generation of consumer applications brought about by the combination of payment chains and AI agents, as well as DeFi facilities, which could be key to breaking the boundaries between Web2 and Web3.
• Augustine offers a different perspective on prediction markets: He believes that while prediction markets are gaining attention, they may soon form an oligopoly, with limited opportunities for new projects. He is more optimistic about the integration of Web2 and Web3 in practical applications (such as on-chain payments, in-car wallets, etc.).
• He believes that the main theme of 2026 will be "the blurring of boundaries between Web2 and Web3." Blockchain technology will no longer be just a toy for the crypto circle but will quietly integrate into real-world scenarios like electric vehicle payments and cross-border settlements, becoming the infrastructure that enhances efficiency. This kind of "subtle integration" may have a long-term impact far exceeding that of a fleeting hype.

Conclusion

This AMA was like a prism, reflecting the complex landscape of the crypto market at a crossroads: on one side is the profound intervention of traditional macro forces, and on the other is the intense growing pains of the market structure transitioning from chaos to professionalism. The consensus among the four guests is that a new era defined by institutions is approaching, and retail investors must upgrade their thinking, placing risk control above the pursuit of returns. As for the future, rather than chasing the noisy and ever-changing narratives, it is wiser to focus on the technological integrations that are genuinely changing the world. The road to 2026 is destined to wind forward cautiously and with anticipation.