Vitalik: Prediction markets are the "antidote" to social media, providing a more rational and responsible aggregation of public opinion

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin posted on Farcaster that prediction markets are a remedy for the crazy opinions on emotional topics, using two screenshots as examples: Elon Musk previously posted that a civil war in the UK is "inevitable," while the prediction market Polymarket shows only a 3% probability for "Will there be a civil war in the UK in 2024?" (Vitalik believes 3% is still too high, as some bettors are inflating the probability).

Vitalik stated that many users on social media exaggerate claims that "something is definitely going to happen" to create panic or attract attention, but they are not held accountable for it; whereas prediction markets involve real money bets, which are more likely to reflect true probabilities and can counter these "crazy opinions."

Vitalik then elaborated on his overall view of prediction markets: compared to social media (where creating panic comes without accountability) and mainstream media (which often resorts to clickbait), prediction markets have a stronger incentive for "truth-seeking." Telling the truth can yield real rewards, while lying incurs significant economic penalties. After discovering exaggerated news, checking Polymarket reveals very low probabilities, which can help calm people down, and conversely, it can also prevent false hopes. Prediction markets serve as a "cure" for social media, providing a more rational and responsible way to aggregate public opinion.