Fundstrat's Head of Crypto Strategy Responds to Disagreement with Tom Lee: Still Bullish on BTC and ETH Hitting New Highs

Fundstrat's Head of Cryptocurrency Strategy, Sean Farrell, responded on the X platform regarding the "discrepancy between his market views and those of Tom Lee," stating that the cautious outlook from the first half of the year reflects risk management rather than a completely bearish stance. The current market pricing is nearly perfect, but risks still exist, including government shutdowns, trade fluctuations, uncertainties in AI capital expenditures, and changes in Federal Reserve leadership, alongside tightening high-yield bond spreads and low cross-asset volatility.

Recent capital flows have also shown divergence. Bitcoin is currently in a valuation "no man's land." In the long term, as major brokerages join in, ETF demand should improve, but in the short term, it still faces pressures from original holders selling, miner stress, MSCI potentially removing MSTR, and fund redemptions. Fundstrat has several analysts, each with independent research frameworks and different investment time horizons, aimed at meeting the diverse investment goals of clients.

My research primarily targets portfolios with a high allocation to crypto assets and adopts a relatively more aggressive market operation strategy. Tom Lee's research mainly serves large asset management institutions and investors allocating 1% to 5% of their assets to BTC and ETH. Such strategies require a high degree of discipline and a long-term perspective to capture structural (long-term) trends in order to achieve excess returns over time.

My goal is to assist clients and subscribers with a high allocation to crypto assets (approximately 20% or more) to consistently outperform the market through active rebalancing across different cycles. The current benchmark assessment suggests a potential rebound at the beginning of the year, followed by another pullback in the first half, providing more attractive opportunities for year-end positioning. If my judgment is incorrect, I prefer to wait for confirmation signals.

For investors focused on this outlook, I still anticipate that Bitcoin and Ethereum will challenge new all-time highs before the end of the year, thus concluding the traditional four-year cycle with a shorter, milder bear market.