Galaxy Digital Research Director: Institutional Access and Monetary Easing Resonance Could Drive Bitcoin to $250,000 Within Two Years

Galaxy Digital's research director Alex Thorn stated that the ongoing expansion of institutional access is resonating with the gradually easing monetary policy and the market's urgent demand for non-dollar hedging assets. Over the next two years, Bitcoin is likely to be widely accepted as an asset to hedge against currency depreciation, similar to gold. He predicts that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.

The trend in 2026 is too chaotic to predict, but it is still possible for Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high in 2026. Currently, the pricing in the options market shows that by the end of June 2026, the probability of Bitcoin falling to $70,000 or rising to $130,000 is nearly equal; similarly, by the end of 2026, the probability of falling to $50,000 or rising to $250,000 is also close.

Such a wide price range reflects a high level of uncertainty in the market regarding the medium to short-term outlook. Alex Thorn also pointed out that when looking at the annual performance, Bitcoin's long-term volatility has structurally decreased, partly due to the introduction of larger-scale covered calls and Bitcoin yield generation strategies.

It is noteworthy that in the current BTC volatility smile curve, the pricing of put options at the volatility level has exceeded that of call options, which was not the case six months ago. This "maturation" trend may continue.

Regardless of whether Bitcoin continues to retreat and approaches the 200-week moving average, the maturity of this asset class and the level of institutional adoption are continuously increasing. The year 2026 may be relatively uneventful for Bitcoin; whether it ultimately closes at $70,000 or $150,000, our bullish outlook on its long-term prospects will only become more steadfast.