Analysis: After the crash on October 11, long-term holders made epic distributions, and the cost structure of BTC underwent significant changes

On-chain data analyst Murphy views the drop on October 11 as the starting point of the current decline, analyzing the significant changes in the BTC cost structure over the past two months as follows:

The most accumulated BTC range is between $80,000 and $90,000, totaling 2.536 million coins, an increase of 1.874 million coins compared to October 11, making it the strongest support range to date. The next ranges are $90,000 to $100,000 (an increase of 324,000 coins) and $100,000 to $110,000 (an increase of 87,000 coins);

With the current BTC price as the midpoint, there are a total of 6.168 million coins at a loss above and 7.462 million coins at a profit below; excluding Satoshi and long-lost BTC, the current structure is almost balanced in terms of chips;

From the drop on October 11 to December 20, the profit-taking coins below decreased by 1.33 million, while the cost of trapped coins above $110,000 decreased by 902,000. The number of BTC in the $100,000 to $110,000 range did not decrease but instead increased by 87,000 coins.

In this round of decline, a significant amount of top chips have been sold off, while the remaining chips have remained flat. Profit-taking coins are being sold off in large quantities, driven by the four-year cycle theory, macro uncertainties, and market concerns such as quantum threats, prompting long-term holders to engage in an epic distribution. The largest sell-off volume is from BTC in the $60,000 to $70,000 range, mostly accumulated before the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and as profits have significantly retracted, there is a rush to cash out.

Currently, the $70,000 to $80,000 range is a relatively "gap area," with only 190,000 BTC remaining. A very small number of market participants hold BTC at this price, and if it drops to this range, it may attract a large influx of new liquidity, thus providing support.