Matrixport: In this round of risk aversion, gold has the upper hand, while Bitcoin is difficult to be widely included as an official reserve asset

According to Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen, gold prices have repeatedly hit new highs, achieving nearly 80% excess returns compared to Bitcoin over the past year, with particularly outstanding performance in certain phases.

From a macro perspective, the weakening dollar, diversified asset allocation, and demand for value-storing assets remain key themes in the current market. However, in this round of market activity, excess returns have been more concentrated in traditional hedging assets like gold, which correspond to falling interest rates, declining inflation, and increasing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish stance by 2026.

Despite BlackRock's efforts in recent years to strengthen the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold," central banks around the world still primarily focus on gold for reserve asset allocation. Due to its high volatility, high exposure, and certain political sensitivities, Bitcoin is currently difficult to be incorporated into official reserve assets on a large scale.

In the medium to long term, the direction of U.S. policy remains the most critical uncertainty: the Trump administration could theoretically choose to revalue gold prices, sell off some reserves, or marginally diversify part of the reserves into Bitcoin.