Greeks.live: Consensus points to low volatility for the next two weeks, and the market may remain subdued and gradually decline

Greeks.live posted on social media that this week marks the Christmas holiday, and the U.S. stock market will be closed on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. During this period, both institutional and retail investors in Europe and the U.S. typically refrain from trading, a trend that usually continues until after New Year's Day. This Friday (26th) is the annual settlement date, and currently, over 50% of the total options positions are awaiting expiration.

Most institutions have chosen to roll over their positions early. Since last week, the implied volatility (IV) for major expiration dates has begun to decline significantly, while the proportion of block trades has increased.

With the combined effects of declining volatility, the Christmas trading period, and year-end rollovers, the implied volatility for Bitcoin across major expiration dates has dropped by over 5% in the past month, with mid-term IV falling by more than 10%. Ethereum's IV has decreased even more.

These data collectively indicate a pessimistic market outlook, with consensus pointing towards low volatility being maintained over the next two weeks. The market is likely to remain subdued over the next half month and may gradually decline.