Matrixport Market Observation: Repricing After High-Level Correction, Crypto Market Enters New Phase of Stock Game

Recently, the global market has shown a subtle balance amid high-level fluctuations. On one hand, expectations of interest rate cuts and marginal weakening of macro data provide some support for risk assets; on the other hand, geopolitical uncertainties have led to a distinct characteristic of market risk appetite being "upwardly constrained and more sensitive to pullbacks." Against this backdrop, capital allocation strategies are shifting from pursuing growth to emphasizing defense and certainty.

The strong performance of gold (up 6.15% in December) confirms this logic, with traditional defensive assets receiving increased capital allocation. Meanwhile, although the stock market shows index resilience, profound changes are occurring within its structure: capital is quietly flowing from high-valuation, highly crowded sectors to value and cyclical sectors with more visible cash flows, forming a "stable index, changing structure" rebalancing pattern.

The cryptocurrency market is inevitably amplified by macro sentiment and fluctuations in capital. Currently, the market is undergoing a typical high-level correction and repricing process.

Crypto Spot: Entering the "Rebalancing Phase," Lacking Trend-Driven Momentum

Bitcoin experienced a correction after approaching approximately $126,000, currently operating mainly in a high-volatility range of $85,000 to $95,000. This pattern can be seen as the market's "repricing" and "rebalancing" after a lack of upward momentum. On-chain data shows that selling pressure from long-term holders has marginally eased, but overall incremental buying remains cautious, more characterized by buying on dips rather than actively chasing prices.

The capital situation is a key observation window for short-term sentiment. The capital flow of spot Bitcoin ETFs is increasingly significant for the market: if there is continued net outflow, it will suppress marginal buying power; only when outflows converge and turn into sustained inflows is it more likely to inject momentum for a trend revival.

Futures and Options: Leverage Cleared, Market Returns to "Healthy Game"

Excessive leverage in the futures market has been significantly cleared. Open interest (OI) has fallen to safer levels, greatly reducing the risk of cascading liquidations. A noteworthy signal is that the basis of BTC forward contracts once appeared at a discount, and driven by hedging positions, the spot-futures price gap has converged to a one-year low, reflecting a cooling of market optimism and an increase in risk management awareness.

The options market reveals signs of gradually repairing sentiment. The implied volatility (IV) center for BTC and ETH options has fallen from high levels, indicating that the market is returning to a more normalized pricing model from panic pricing due to "sudden shocks." Although the implied volatility skew shows that the short-term market still has some concerns about pullbacks, overall sentiment is repairing. Currently, call options still dominate the position structure, and a large number of options are set to expire on December 26, making key strike prices important short-term pressure and support points.

Crypto Stocks: Premium Eases, Value Reassessment in Progress

The stock performance of crypto-related listed companies also reflects the market's return from frenzy to rationality.

• Digital Asset Trusts (DAT): Their market value to net asset value ratio has fallen to nearly 1x, significantly compressing the notable premium that arose from "equity packaging" earlier. Their stock price volatility has been amplified by "coin price pullbacks" and "potential dilution expectations."

• Mining and Computing Power Sector: Valuations have shown significant differentiation. Companies relying solely on computing power operations see their valuations more dependent on cost control and capacity expansion efficiency; while companies with quality electricity and data center resources partially benefit from the market's "repricing" of their infrastructure's potential cash flows in the AI computing power field.

• Exchanges and Compliance Platforms: As a bridge connecting the traditional and crypto worlds, the scarcity premium of their licenses and compliance channels still exists, but future valuation increases will rely more on institutional business penetration rates and the realization of recurring revenues.

Summary and Strategic Outlook

The current crypto market is in a "rebalancing after a high-level correction" phase. Macroeconomic uncertainties suppress risk appetite, and the market lacks clear unilateral trend drivers. The futures market is healthy in terms of leverage, and the options market's volatility has decreased, bringing the overall pattern closer to a "healthy stock game."

In this environment, trend traders may need more patience, waiting for clearer signals from the macro or capital fronts. For investors focusing on current market characteristics, the following strategic ideas may be considered:

• Neutral in Fluctuations: Attention can be paid to products like FCN (Fixed Income Notes) or dual-currency investments aimed at obtaining potential coupon income through selling volatility.

• Bullish on Dips: Consider using discounted Accumulators to gradually build positions during market fluctuations and utilize their Knock-Out (KO) mechanism to control chasing risks.

• Bearish or Seeking Hedging/Reduction: Decumulators or Covered Call strategies can help reduce holdings in batches during volatility or provide downside protection for spot positions.

• Need for Liquidity and Avoiding Forced Liquidation Risks: For investors with financing needs but unwilling to bear margin call risks, non-margin guarantee financing products offer a low-interest and controllable risk option.

The market's return to calm after the noise in the "repricing" process often marks the beginning of a new cycle. Maintaining sharpness in defense and seeking structure in balance may be a better response strategy for the current phase.

The above content is from Daniel Yu, Head of Asset Management, and represents the author's personal views only.

Disclaimer: The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.