Outlook of the Crypto Industry by 7 Major Institutions: Where Will It Go in 2026?

Author: Viee, Amelia, Denise I Biteye Content Team

Over the past year, the crypto market has quietly reached a new crossroads.

With the Federal Reserve's policy shift, the rise of narratives such as x402, prediction markets, on-chain US stocks, and security tokenization, the market is no longer driven by a single emotion as it was in the past, but is beginning to show more complex and mature structural changes.

As 2025 approaches its end, several top institutions have released outlook reports for the 2026 crypto market. a16z @a16zcrypto, Galaxy @galaxyhq, Bitwise @BitwiseInvest, Messari @MessariCrypto, Grayscale @Grayscale, Delphi @DelphiDigital, VanEck @vaneckus…

Unlike some KOLs' short-term judgments, a common feature of these institutional reports is that they do not discuss "what to speculate on next," but rather answer "what this industry is becoming."

Through these outlooks, a clear signal is emerging—crypto is transitioning from an emotion-driven retail cycle to an "institutional era" centered on compliance, value, and long-term capital.

This article will focus on institutions, dissecting the predictions of seven leading institutions for the 2026 crypto market, and attempt to distill the core logic they are collectively betting on.

Before diving in, here’s a quick overview of institutional consensus:

• Macroeconomic headwinds turning into tailwinds, the institutional era begins, and the funding environment is expected to improve.

• Four-year cycle weakening, the market may enter a structurally slow bull phase.

• Stablecoins and RWA strengthen real-world connections, expanding on-chain application scenarios.

• The application prospects of prediction markets are improving, and the integration of AI and crypto is accelerating.

a16z: The Next Generation of Crypto Narratives, No Longer Centered on Price

In their 2026 outlook, a16z did not focus on short-term prices or regulatory battles, but returned to a core question: how will the next generation of crypto products be adopted by real users? They summarized 17 promising directions, with keywords being implementation, experience, and scalability.

Among these, the most representative change comes from the fusion of AI and crypto.

As AI agents begin to trade, place orders, and call on-chain services automatically, how will these non-human agents prove "who they are"? a16z proposed a new paradigm called "Know Your Agent (KYA)," which may become a prerequisite for AI agents to go on-chain.

On the payment front, a16z predicts that future agents will automatically complete transaction settlements through protocols like x402, without user intervention, as agents identify needs and trigger payments.

In the content domain, facing a vast amount of AI-generated content, a16z proposed a "staking media" model, where speakers stake on their viewpoints, potentially becoming the next paradigm for on-chain media.

Other directions include upgrades in stablecoin inflows and outflows, RWA crypto-native integration, stablecoins driving upgrades in banking ledger systems, diversification in wealth management, the rise of AI research assistants, real-time content profit-sharing mechanisms for AI agents, decentralized quantum-resistant communication, "privacy as a service" becoming infrastructure, shifts in DeFi security paradigms, intelligent prediction markets, privacy chains, verifiable cloud computing, emphasis on product-market fit (PMF), and crypto legislation unlocking more potential for blockchain.

Original: https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/big-ideas-things-excited-about-crypto-2026/

Galaxy: Price Range Expands, Structure is Changing

Galaxy's report starts from market structure, depicting a "uncertain but not pessimistic" 2026.

In terms of Bitcoin price predictions, the trajectory for 2026 is extremely difficult to determine accurately. Options market pricing indicates that by the end of June 2026, Bitcoin could be around $70,000 or $130,000, with both probabilities being roughly equal. This wide range reflects the market's uncertainty about future directions. Additionally, Bitcoin is transitioning to a pricing model similar to that of mature assets like gold.

At the public chain level, Galaxy predicts that the Solana ecosystem will shift from meme-driven to real business revenue. In the stablecoin RWA direction, it is expected that stablecoin transaction volumes will exceed those of the US ACH system, and traditional financial institutions will accelerate their acceptance of RWA, such as large banks or brokerages beginning to use tokenized stocks as collateral. Mainstream card networks (like Visa/Mastercard) will see over 10% of cross-border settlements completed through public chain stablecoins.

Finally, the overall market cap of privacy tokens is expected to exceed $100 billion, while the weekly trading volume of prediction markets like Polymarket may stabilize above $150 million, potentially nurturing new growth nodes. In terms of AI and on-chain integration, Galaxy clearly predicts that AI agent payments using the x402 payment standard will account for about 30% of daily transactions on the Base protocol in 2026.

This means that the on-chain agent economy is no longer just a concept but is beginning to enter the phase of real-world use.

Original: https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/predictions-2026-crypto-bitcoin-defi

Bitwise: 10 Predictions Indicate "Bull Market in Progress"

If any institution stands clearly on the bullish side, Bitwise is one of them.

The Bitwise report opens with a key signal: by the end of 2025, the total funds for US crypto spot ETFs have exceeded $12 billion, indicating that Wall Street has fully entered the market, while holdings on platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood show that retail investors have not exited. This rare dual-driven funding structure provides a foundation for the next cycle's sustainability.

Bitwise proposed 10 key predictions, with the most explicit signal being that Bitcoin will again reach a new all-time high, primarily due to continued ETF inflows, macro interest rate declines, and the effects of the 2024 halving. Other predictions include:

• Bitcoin's volatility will be lower than Nvidia's stock.

• In 2026, various spot ETFs and derivative ETFs will flood the market.

• Crypto stocks will outperform tech stocks.

• Polymarket's open interest will hit new highs, exceeding levels seen during the 2024 elections.

• On-chain vaults, also known as "ETF 2.0," will double in management scale.

• Over 100 crypto ETFs will be listed in the US.

Bitwise also provided a "bonus prediction," stating that the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks will decrease, while AI has been named as "the next trading infrastructure," with crypto-native AI projects potentially emerging as independent markets.

Original: https://bitwiseinvestments.com/crypto-market-insights/the-year-ahead-10-crypto-predictions-for-2026

Messari: A Year of Transition from Speculation to System Integration

Messari defines 2026 as a "turning year."

They believe that while sentiment was low in 2025, institutional participation accelerated, laying the groundwork for the next phase of systemic integration. The continued rise of BTC proves its solid recognition as a monetary asset, while other mainstream assets like ETH and BNB have failed to form a premium on par with BTC, and most Layer-1 public chains may underperform BTC.

An important change is the rise of privacy assets and application-level currencies, with more consumer-level applications likely to choose to build their own currency systems rather than solely relying on the native tokens of underlying public chains, which will drive on-chain currency innovation into a new phase, with Virtuals and Zora being the most representative cases.

In addition to the currency aspect, Messari also emphasizes the importance of integrating AI, DePIN, DeFi, and traditional finance (TradFi), as these structural forces will continue to shape the future ecological landscape, making 2026 not just a "bull market expectation," but a true starting point for accelerating the intrinsic value process within the industry.

Original: https://messari.io/report/the-crypto-theses-2026

Grayscale: 2026 is the "Dawn of the Institutional Era," Accelerating Structural Growth

Grayscale's positioning for 2026 is very clear: it is a key year for the crypto market's transition from a "retail cycle" to "institutional capital dominance."

In their view, the future market will be driven by macro factors and a clearer regulatory framework. This structural shift has two core pillars: first, the demand for scarce digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum as alternative value assets continues to grow in the macro environment; second, regulatory clarity significantly enhances the deep connection between traditional capital and blockchain technology.

In terms of price judgment, Grayscale maintains a relatively optimistic attitude towards 2026. The report predicts that Bitcoin will reach new historical highs in the first half of the year, suggesting that the traditional "four-year cycle" logic may come to an end, with more reliance on the accumulation of long-term capital and macro allocation.

Grayscale also provided several major investment themes, including the continued expansion of stablecoins in payment boundaries, especially under regulatory pushes like the GENIUS Act, where asset tokenization is at a turning point and will gradually increase its share in global finance. In the DeFi direction, lending remains the main focus, with future funds favoring protocols with sustainable income models, no longer paying for high FDV projects without income. Additionally, staking yields will become the default investment option, and financial products around staking yields will emerge in 2026.

Some popular narratives, such as quantum computing and crypto vaults (DAT), while loud, will not significantly impact the market in the short term.

Original: https://research.grayscale.com/reports/2026-digital-asset-outlook-dawn-of-the-institutional-era

Delphi Digital: 2026 is the Era of Social Trading and Agentic Finance

Delphi Digital defines the key incremental entry point for 2026 as "social trading" and "Agentic Finance," believing that intelligence will become an important paradigm shift in on-chain finance.

Agentic Finance refers to processes completed by on-chain AI agents, such as automatic rebalancing, strategy execution, and yield maximization, allowing users to participate in complex financial activities without constantly monitoring the market. The "social trading" mechanism (such as mirror strategies and copy trading systems) is also positioned by Delphi as a key means to attract the next batch of retail users.

On a macro level, Delphi believes that 2026 is a significant turning point, with the key variable being the liquidity shift. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts, benefiting risk assets in attracting funds again. With clearer regulations, the Bitcoin ETF flywheel effect, and deepening institutional adoption, they are optimistic about DeFi supporting the implementation of more complex automated on-chain strategies.

Original: https://delphidigital.io/year-ahead-2026

VanEck: 2026 is a Year of Volatility

VanEck's judgment is relatively restrained.

They believe that the crypto market in 2026 will not experience the dramatic fluctuations of past cycles, but is more likely to be a year of volatility. While Bitcoin experienced a decline of over 80% in the last cycle, the maximum drop in this cycle so far is only about 35%, combined with a halving of volatility, indicating that the room for retracement has mostly been absorbed. Among the three major analytical frameworks, VanEck points out:

• Global liquidity is complex; while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts should benefit the market, the rapid cash burn and financing difficulties of AI make borrowing more expensive for companies, keeping market liquidity tight.

• The leverage in the crypto market has undergone multiple rounds of cleansing; on-chain activity remains sluggish, but there are signs of recovery.

In this context, VanEck recommends allocating Bitcoin through a 1%-3% dollar-cost averaging strategy and moderately reducing positions during market overheating. Additionally, stablecoins are penetrating the B2B payment sector, optimizing cross-border settlements, and they are optimistic about e-commerce and fintech platforms that can drive the application of stablecoins.

Original: https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/investment-outlook/plan-for-2026-predictions-from-our-portfolio-managers/

Summary of Institutional Perspectives: Generally Optimistic

In summary of the outlooks from the aforementioned institutions, the picture of the crypto market in 2026 is gradually becoming clearer. Although each institution has different entry points and focuses, their core judgments show a certain consensus of optimism:

1. Macroeconomic environment improving: Almost all reports believe that 2026 will be a key node for "headwinds turning into tailwinds." Whether it is the anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve or the warming of the global liquidity environment, both create new macro benefits for scarce assets like Bitcoin.

2. The institutional era officially begins: Parallel to macro factors is the iteration of funding structures. 2026 will no longer just be a retail cycle but the opening of the "institutional era." ETF products, on-chain vaults, asset management indices, and pension fund entries… not only are the buying methods changing, but the nature of funds is also shifting from short-term speculative games to stable allocations. Moreover, DeFi, RWA, and stablecoins will become key connecting points, bringing traditional capital logic into the on-chain world.

3. Four-year cycle effects weakening: The market rhythm dominated by the four-year halving is being replaced by longer-term capital logic. 2026 may no longer follow the past scripts of rises and falls but enter a long-term "slow bull mode" similar to mature assets like gold and stocks.

4. Stablecoins and RWA as bridges between reality and on-chain: Meanwhile, the mainline of stablecoins and RWA is continuously strengthening. Stablecoins are seen as a key node in the reconstruction of financial infrastructure, spanning payments, settlements, and corporate finance; the explosion of RWA means that traditional assets will also move on-chain, broadening market depth.

5. Bright prospects for prediction markets: The success of platforms like Polymarket represents a promising outlook for such applications. With regulatory easing, these prediction markets may even participate in broader financial activities.

6. Integration of AI and blockchain: a16z, Delphi, Grayscale, and others view this as a potential explosive point. In 2026, AI will continue to develop rapidly, while blockchain will increasingly be introduced to provide trust, payment, and decentralization solutions. The cross-narrative of AI + Crypto is rapidly heating up.

In Conclusion

The echoes of each cycle's endpoint will resonate at the starting point of the next cycle.

Looking ahead to the upcoming year of 2026, the crypto industry may be at a crucial juncture, poised for takeoff.

From ETFs, on-chain US stocks to AI Agents applications, the new narrative is no longer driven by speculation but is linked to real demand and macro structures.

Perhaps this cycle will progress more slowly, but it will be more solid.

Disclaimer: For reference only, Biteye does not endorse the above views.