Viewpoint: The year 2026 may usher in a "crypto winter," but institutionalization and on-chain transformation are accelerating

According to CoinDesk, Cantor Fitzgerald pointed out in its latest year-end report that Bitcoin may be entering a months-long downtrend, with the market potentially heading into the "crypto winter" of 2026 ahead of schedule.

Analyst Brett Knoblauch believes that Bitcoin has retreated about 85 days from its recent peak, and the price may continue to face pressure, even testing Strategy's average cost line of around $75,000.

However, unlike previous cycles, this downtrend is less likely to be accompanied by large-scale liquidations or systemic collapses. Cantor noted that the current market is dominated by institutions rather than retail investors, and the "divergence" between token prices and on-chain fundamentals is widening, particularly in the areas of DeFi, tokenized assets, and crypto infrastructure.

On the regulatory front, the passage of the U.S. "Digital Asset Market Clear Act" is seen as a key turning point, expected to reduce policy uncertainty and encourage banks and asset management institutions to engage more deeply in the crypto market.

Cantor concluded that while 2026 may not usher in a new bull market, the institutionalization of the crypto industry, compliance pathways, and on-chain infrastructure are gradually solidifying alongside the cooling of prices.