VanEck 2026 Outlook: Decline may decrease by 40%, four-year cycle still valid

VanEck's Head of Digital Assets, Matthew Sigel, stated in his 2026 outlook that digital assets are showing complex but positive signals as 2026 begins. Bitcoin fell about 80% in the last cycle, but its actual volatility has since decreased by nearly half, suggesting that this round of decline may be limited to around 40%. The market has currently absorbed about a 35% drop.

Meanwhile, the historical four-year cycle of Bitcoin (which often peaks during the window after the U.S. elections) remains valid after the high in early October 2025. This pattern indicates that 2026 is more likely to be a year of consolidation rather than a year of explosive growth or collapse.

In 2026, global liquidity is mixed; expectations for interest rate cuts provide support, but U.S. liquidity is slightly tightening due to the collision of AI-driven capital expenditure booms and a fragile financing market, leading to an expansion of credit spreads. Leverage in the crypto ecosystem has been reset after multiple washouts. On-chain activity, while still weak, is beginning to show signs of improvement.

Matthew Sigel suggests that in this context, a disciplined allocation of 1% to 3% in Bitcoin should be established through a dollar-cost averaging strategy, increasing holdings during leverage liquidations and reducing them when market speculation overheats.