CryptoQuant Research Director: The market misjudges whale behavior, and the real demand for Bitcoin is slowing down and approaching negative value territory

CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno posted on the X platform, stating that whales have not been buying Bitcoin in large quantities. Most Bitcoin whale data is inaccurate because some exchanges consolidate large holdings into a few larger balance addresses, which is why the market mistakenly believes that whales are accumulating Bitcoin. If all exchange addresses are excluded, it turns out that the Bitcoin balance of whales is actually declining. The same situation applies to addresses holding between 100 to 1000 Bitcoins, which include ETF holdings.

Julio Moreno believes that most people focus on price performance to define cycles, while they should be paying attention to real demand. The real demand for Bitcoin, calculated monthly, is shrinking, and when calculated annually, it is significantly slowing down and entering negative territory. If over time, Bitcoin's valuation relative to a certain model becomes increasingly undervalued, then what needs to be updated is the model itself.