The decoupling of Bitcoin from the global M2 money supply is intensifying, and analysts have differing views on the outlook for 2026

Since mid-2025, Bitcoin has begun to decouple from the global M2 money supply (i.e., the total amount of money in circulation in the market, including cash, demand deposits, time deposits, etc.), and this trend became more pronounced in early 2026. Historically, the correlation between the two has been the basis for bullish predictions, but analysts are now sharply divided on this phenomenon.

Fidelity Digital Assets' January report maintains an optimistic outlook, believing that as the global monetary easing cycle begins and the Federal Reserve's QT plan ends, the M2 growth rate will continue to rise in 2026, which will be favorable for Bitcoin prices. Analyst MartyParty predicts that Bitcoin prices will rebound to catch up with M2 growth.

However, Mister Crypto points out that the decoupling of Bitcoin prices from M2 typically signals a market top, followed by a 2-4 year bear market. The founder of Capriole Investments believes that the decoupling reflects the risk of quantum computing breaking Bitcoin's encryption. Despite the uncertainties, investors still view Bitcoin as a long-term store of value.