HTX DeepThink: This round of Bitcoin market is not a simple rebound, but the starting point of a new round of macro pricing

Recently, Bitcoin has continued to receive strong buying support at high levels against the backdrop of macro data that has not yet shown significant improvement. In this issue of the HTX DeepThink column, HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) believes that the current trend of Bitcoin does not appear to be a technical rebound but rather resembles the onset of a new macro pricing phase. Behind this, two key macro pricing logics are at play: one stemming from changes in liquidity within the U.S. financial system, and the other from the systematic rise of geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

Starting from Real Estate Policy: "Implicit Easing" is Happening in the U.S. Financial System

Recent statements by U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen regarding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) may superficially belong to the housing policy category, but from a financial structure perspective, it is an extremely important liquidity event for the crypto market.

While the Federal Reserve is still allowing about $15-17 billion of MBS to "naturally flow out" of its balance sheet each month through quantitative tightening (QT), the Trump administration has been using government-supported financial institutions to buy back these outflows with their own balance sheets. This means that some of the liquidity "withdrawn" by the Federal Reserve is being reabsorbed through the real estate financial system, effectively initiating a round of "shadow QE" within the real estate system without changing the monetary policy framework.

For the crypto market, the key is not whether mortgage rates immediately decline, but whether real liquidity re-enters the U.S. financial system. The buying behavior of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will compress the spread between MBS and U.S. Treasuries, releasing space on bank balance sheets and thereby enhancing credit expansion capacity. In the U.S., real estate credit is one of the largest liquidity transmission channels, which was the source of the Bitcoin bull market in 2020-2021.

This means that, although the Federal Reserve appears to be cautiously lowering interest rates on the surface, at the systemic level, dollar credit has begun to expand again. When real estate finance is re-supported, risk assets are usually the first to sense this change, and among all risk assets, Bitcoin and the crypto market are the most sensitive to liquidity. This explains why Bitcoin can maintain continuous buying support at high levels even when macro data has not shown significant improvement.

Escalating Situation in Iran: Inflation and Credit Uncertainty are Being Repriced

At the same time, the situation in Iran is providing another extremely critical pricing logic for the crypto market. Iran is experiencing the largest wave of protests since 1979, with substantial challenges to regime stability, and the U.S. and Israel are preparing for possible political or military intervention.

Oil prices have risen more than 5% in two days, driven not by inventory or demand changes but by the market beginning to price in risks of disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies and geopolitical conflicts. The essence of such shocks is to elevate global inflation risks and exacerbate uncertainties within the dollar system.

For crypto assets, this structural uncertainty has a clear positive impact. On one hand, rising energy prices mean increased production costs and elevated tail risks of inflation; on the other hand, the U.S. is expanding credit through shadow QE to hedge against economic pressures. The combined result is that real interest rates are further suppressed, fiat purchasing power faces ongoing erosion, and scarce assets are beginning to be repriced.

A Very Typical Structural Environment is Forming

It is against this backdrop that the market is seeing gold, silver, and Bitcoin strengthen simultaneously. They are not trading on short-term risk preferences but are trading on the same macro reality—when fiscal policy begins to dominate monetary policy, and local geopolitical conflicts start to impact energy and inflation expectations, decentralized, non-dilutable assets will become the preferred safe haven for capital.

Structurally, the crypto market is entering a very typical phase: the dollar is undergoing implicit easing, geopolitical risks are rising, and the long-term pricing center for Bitcoin and high-quality crypto assets is being gradually elevated. In the short term, the market may still be affected by macro data and sentiment disturbances, but from the dual perspectives of liquidity and geopolitics, the crypto market is being placed in an extremely favorable macro environment.

This is also why the current trend of Bitcoin resembles the starting point of a new macro pricing phase rather than a simple rebound.

Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

About Huobi HTX

Huobi HTX was established in 2013 and has developed over 12 years from a cryptocurrency exchange into a comprehensive blockchain business ecosystem, covering digital asset trading, financial derivatives, research, investment, incubation, and other businesses.

As a leading global Web3 portal, Huobi HTX adheres to a development strategy of global expansion, ecological prosperity, wealth effect, and security compliance, providing comprehensive, safe, and reliable value and services for virtual currency enthusiasts worldwide.

For more information about Huobi HTX, please visit https://www.htx.com/ or HTX Square, and follow X, Telegram, and Discord. For further inquiries, please contact glo-media@htx-inc.com.

About HTX Research

HTX Research is the dedicated research department of Huobi HTX, responsible for in-depth analysis across a wide range of areas including cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports, and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to delivering data-driven insights and strategic foresight, playing a key role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous research methodologies and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research consistently stands at the forefront of innovation, leading the development of industry thought and facilitating a deeper understanding of the ever-changing market dynamics. Visit us.

If you wish to communicate, please contact research@htx-inc.com.