Trump signals personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin's rally faces disruptions, and the market reassesses the interest rate cut expectations for 2026

As Bitcoin's price approaches $100,000 in early 2026, U.S. President Trump’s latest remarks regarding the Federal Reserve Chair nominee are seen by the market as a potential "turning point" for prices. Recently, Trump publicly stated at the White House that, despite widespread expectations that White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett would succeed current Chair Powell, he "prefers to keep Hassett in his current position," stating that a reassignment would be "a serious concern." This statement quickly dampened market bets on Hassett becoming the Federal Reserve Chair.

As a result, the probability of Hassett's election on the prediction market Polymarket has significantly declined, while his main competitor, former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, saw his chances of winning rise to nearly 60%. Market analysis indicates that Hassett is viewed as a more dovish candidate, and if he were to become Federal Reserve Chair, it could be more favorable for interest rate cut expectations in 2026, thereby supporting Bitcoin and risk asset performance. In contrast, Warsh's stance is relatively hawkish, suggesting that a high-interest rate environment may persist longer, posing short-term pressure on crypto assets. Although Warsh has previously invested in crypto companies and served as an advisor to institutional crypto bank Anchorage, analysts believe his monetary policy orientation is not as accommodative as Hassett's. Nansen's Chief Research Analyst Aurelie Barthere pointed out that Hassett "originally had a higher level of support for the crypto market."