The 2026 Investment Script of 4 Tech Billionaires: Bullish on Copper Mines, Bearish on Oil, New Crypto Assets to Replace Gold and BTC

Original: All-In Podcast

Compiled by: Yuliya, PANews

The All-In Podcast is one of the most popular technology and business podcasts in the world, co-hosted by four top venture capitalists and friends. The four hosts are: Jason Calacanis (early investor in Uber and Robinhood, podcast host, responsible for moderating), Chamath Palihapitiya (billionaire, founder of Social Capital, known as the "King of SPACs," with sharp insights), David Friedberg (founder of The Production Board, with a strong scientific background, known as the "Sultan of Science"), and David Sacks (the first "AI and cryptocurrency czar" in the U.S., close friend of Musk, co-founder of Craft Ventures, former PayPal executive, recently deeply involved in U.S. political activities). In this episode, the four discussed deep predictions about political, business, and technology trends for 2026, covering topics such as California's wealth tax, Trump economics, the impact of AI on employment, geopolitics, and specific investment advice.

Here are the detailed contents of the conversation, compiled by PANews:

Prologue: Escaping California and the Wealth Tax Crisis

Jason Calacanis (hereinafter Jason): Welcome back to the world's number one podcast. David Sacks, everyone is curious, how have you adapted since moving to Texas?

David Sacks (hereinafter Sacks): I love the 70-degree Fahrenheit (about 21 degrees Celsius) weather here. I finished moving in December, bought a new house, went to the DMV, and signed a lease for Craft Ventures' Austin office. Everything is settled.

Jason: Chamath, what about you guys?

Chamath Palihapitiya (hereinafter Chamath): We're coming to check it out, but we haven't made a final decision yet.

Sacks: The funniest part is that while we were discussing California's wealth tax in the group, Chamath was there acting like, "I'm going to stay and fight, I'm not leaving my home." Then I got a call from my broker saying she was helping Chamath find a house.

Jason: Wow! Is Chamath making "backdoor deals"?

Chamath: I'm just hedging my bets! If you look at our friends who have clearly left, their combined net worth is about $500 billion. This is very detrimental to California's long-term budget. If you add in those who are still on the fence but may be forced to leave, about half of the taxable wealth projected in California's budget could disappear.

Sacks: I predict this (California's wealth tax) will be the topic of the year. They are collecting signatures, and they need about 850,000 signatures to get this proposal on the ballot. If it is confirmed in April, it will cause massive panic, and many people will leave because they can't afford the risk. Even if it doesn't pass in 2026, everyone expects some version to come back in 2028. That's why I decided to leave.

Chamath: If you're an entrepreneur with good ideas, it's hard to start a business here. Because once you succeed, holding a lot of illiquid stock and having to pay 5% of the stock's valuation as tax can bankrupt your own company.

Sacks: And what if your company goes to zero the next year? You still owe the tax bill. Also, one reason Larry Page and Sergey Brin (founders of Google) left might be the super voting rights clause in the proposal. This clause states that if you have super voting rights, the tax authority will calculate the value of all your shares based on the multiple of super voting rights. For example, if they have 52% voting rights in Google, which has a market cap of $4 trillion, their net worth could be seen as $1 trillion each, rather than the actual $200 billion. For them, a 5% tax effectively becomes a 25% or even 50% tax.

Jason: Quick prediction, will this "asset seizure tax" pass?

David Friedberg (hereinafter Friedberg): I don't think it will make it to the ballot.

Chamath: I don't think it will pass, but it will make it to the ballot.

Sacks: Previously, the probability of it making it to the ballot on Polymarket was only 45%, but after Ro Khanna and Bernie Sanders got involved, it skyrocketed to 80%. It won't make it to the ballot in two scenarios: either the unions (SEIU) don't have the money to collect signatures, or Gavin Newsom (California Governor) can negotiate to have them withdraw.

Chamath: But if it makes it to the ballot, the probability of passing is 40%.**

The Biggest Business Winners of 2026

Jason: Next up are the business winners. Last year's predictions had Friedberg choosing robotics and autonomous driving hardware, Chamath choosing stablecoins, Gavin choosing large companies that effectively use AI, and I chose Tesla and Google. We can say we all predicted quite accurately. Friedberg, who do you choose this year?

Friedberg: I have two picks.

• The first is Huawei. I believe Huawei is deeply involved in the chip sector in collaboration with SMIC, and they are firing on all cylinders; this year's performance will exceed Western expectations.
• The second is Polymarket, which has evolved from a quirky niche market into a platform that provides insights on current events. I expect it will explode this year. Following its collaboration with the New York Stock Exchange, I anticipate all exchanges, including Robinhood, Coinbase, and even Nasdaq, will take action this year. Prediction markets will not only become markets but also become news.

Chamath: I choose copper. In a world increasingly leaning towards unilateralism and emphasizing national economic resilience, we are still severely underestimating the gap between global demand and supply for a few key elements. In this context, the asset most likely to "skyrocket" is copper. It is currently the most useful, cheapest, most malleable, and conductive material, found everywhere from data centers to chips to weapon systems. At the current rate, by 2040, there will be about a 70% shortfall in global copper supply.

Sacks: I believe 2026 will be a big year for IPOs.** There will be a large number of companies successfully going public, creating trillions of dollars in new market value. Recently, there has been concern about the shrinking number of public companies, with many being privatized. 2026 will be a significant reversal of this trend, which is also part of the "Trump Boom."

Jason: I correctly predicted Google last year, and this year my choice is Amazon. I believe they will become the first "corporate singularity," where the profits contributed by robots will exceed those of humans. Their autonomous driving company Zoox is making good progress, and they are massively replacing human employees with robots. In Austin, we can now order anything from Amazon for same-day delivery, supported by a huge automated warehouse and logistics network.

Sacks: I think Jason's judgment on Amazon will ultimately be correct, but for reasons completely unrelated to what he provided.

The Biggest Business Losers of 2026

Jason: After discussing the winners, let's look at the losers. Last year's predictions were quite unanimous; Friedberg, Chamath, and Gavin all pointed to enterprise SaaS (Software as a Service), while I chose traditional automakers and real estate. It turned out that enterprise SaaS did indeed perform poorly in 2025, with stocks of companies like ServiceNow, Workday, and DocuSign all declining. Friedberg, what is your prediction for business losers this year?

Friedberg: I believe state governments will face huge financing difficulties.** As more waste, fraud, and abuse in state government agencies are exposed, people will begin to question their long-term solvency. More seriously, the massive unfunded pension liabilities of various states will be revealed this year, making people realize there is a huge black hole in state finances.

Chamath: I choose the software industrial complex, which consists of companies selling licensed SaaS to American businesses.** This is an economy worth three to four trillion dollars a year, but 90% of its revenue comes from "maintenance" and "migration." With the advancement of AI models and technologies, I believe the economic opportunities in these two areas will sharply shrink and contract. Companies still need software, but incremental revenue will drop significantly, severely impacting publicly listed SaaS companies.

Sacks: I still choose California. The shadow of the wealth tax and the harsh regulatory environment are driving business and capital out of the state. I sincerely hope you are right, and this bill ultimately doesn't make it to the ballot. If it does, there will be a panic exodus.

Jason: My choice is young white-collar workers in the U.S. I believe they are finding it increasingly difficult to find entry-level jobs because companies find it easier to automate with AI than to train recent graduates. I see many companies replacing some of the repetitive tasks typically done by fresh graduates with AI. This doesn't mean young people have no opportunities; rather, they need to become more resilient, self-reliant, and learn to use AI tools.

Friedberg: I have a different view on this. I've heard from some CEO friends that it's currently difficult to hire recent graduates, not because of AI, but because of cultural issues. Many Gen Z graduates seem to lack motivation, organizational skills, and executive function. This may be a unique phenomenon of the COVID-19 pandemic or a deeper cultural shift. So I believe the difficulty young people face in finding jobs is a result of both cultural factors and AI automation.

Jason: I think both are true. Perhaps these young people are either spoiled or their parents have enough money to let them coast. But I also see many companies telling me that they can replace a third of the bottom tasks, which are usually done by fresh graduates.

The Most Significant Deals of 2026

Jason: Next, let's predict the most significant deals of 2026. Sacks, what are your thoughts?

Sacks: I don't want to name specific companies, but I believe coding assistants and tool use will see significant breakthroughs. Just like the chatbot boom at the end of 2022, this field is rapidly gaining traction, and I think it will become increasingly important this year.

Friedberg: I believe the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be resolved this year.** There are many economic and political factors driving this process, which will bring more stability to the region.

Chamath: I don't think it's about a specific deal, but rather a transformation in the way deals are done: IP licensing deals will replace traditional mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Due to increasingly strict antitrust scrutiny, large mergers have become extremely difficult. So companies will turn to large-scale IP licensing agreements to acquire technology and talent. Collaborations like Google with Character.AI, Microsoft with OpenAI, and Nvidia with Grok are all examples of this model. I believe this type of deal will become more common and mature in 2026.

Jason: I think we will see a massive acquisition exceeding $50 billion. It could be one of Apple, Meta, Microsoft, or Amazon acquiring AI newcomers like XAI, Mistral, Perplexity, or Anthropic. I know most of these AI companies want to go public independently, but I believe an offer they can't refuse will eventually come. President Trump may direct the government to "make mergers great again," which is crucial for maintaining U.S. global competitiveness.

The Boldest Contrarian Predictions for 2026

Jason: Next is everyone's favorite part: the boldest contrarian predictions. Last year's predictions included me saying OpenAI would lose its leading position, which indeed happened; Chamath predicted a crisis among major banks; Gavin predicted GDP would see over 5% annual growth; and Friedberg predicted socialism would make a comeback. It can be said that everyone's predictions were quite forward-looking. Friedberg, what is your contrarian prediction this year?

Friedberg: My prediction is based on one premise: there will be a revolution in Iran, and the Ayatollah regime will fall. But this is not my contrarian view; I believe it will happen. My contrarian view is: the fall of Iran will not bring stability to the Middle East but will instead trigger more conflicts. Many people think Iran is a destabilizing force in the region, but I believe it actually plays a certain "stabilizing" role. Once this regime disappears, other Arab countries (like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) will erupt into new conflicts over power and influence, especially after the emergence of the Palestinian "two-state solution." The situation in the Middle East will be worse than anyone expects.

Sacks: My contrarian prediction is: AI will increase rather than decrease the demand for knowledge workers. I want to quote "Jevons' paradox": when the cost of a resource decreases, the total demand for it actually increases because people find more use cases. For example, the reduced cost of generating code will lead society to create a massive amount of software; the reduced cost of radiology scans will make scanning more widespread, thus requiring more radiologists to interpret and verify AI results. The so-called "unemployment narrative" is not only wrong; we will actually see job growth.

Chamath: I have two contrarian predictions.

• First: SpaceX will not go public but will reverse merge with Tesla. I believe Elon Musk will take this opportunity to consolidate his two most important assets into one equity structure to strengthen his control.
• Second: Central banks will realize the limitations of gold and Bitcoin and will seek a brand new, controllable crypto paradigm. To maintain national sovereignty, they need a tradable, secure, and completely private asset that is not easily scrutinized by other countries (whether friends or foes). Moreover, technically, it must be able to withstand the challenges that quantum computing may pose to existing cryptographic systems in the next 5 to 10 years.

Jason: My contrarian prediction is: the confrontation between the U.S. and China will largely be resolved. I believe this could become a hallmark achievement of President Trump's second term. The two sides will reach a win-win working relationship rather than a zero-sum game where one side loses.

The Best Performing Assets of 2026

Jason: Last year, Gavin predicted that high-bandwidth memory manufacturers (like Micron) would see their stock prices soar by 230%, and Friedberg predicted that Chinese tech stocks would also perform well. This year, what assets do you think will perform best?

Friedberg: I again choose Polymarket. Its network effects are becoming evident; it is replacing the functions of traditional media and markets, with huge potential.

Chamath: I choose a basket of key metals. This aligns with the logic I mentioned earlier about copper; in the context of geopolitical and supply chain reshaping, the demand for these basic materials will be rigid.

Sacks: I choose the expansion supercycle in the tech sector. This is still part of my "Trump Boom" theory. Moreover, just as we are recording this episode, the Atlanta Fed has just raised its GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter to an astonishing 5.4%.

Chamath: People are not aware of a few things.

• First, due to immigration issues, non-farm payroll data has been reset, and income growth for low-income groups is very rapid.
• Second, the productivity gains brought by AI.
• Third, the tax cuts that will take effect in 2026.

All these factors combined create a huge growth momentum. Don't short the U.S. economy; it is ready to take off. A 6% GDP growth is not unrealistic.

Jason: In this environment where the economy is about to take off, interest rates may be lowered, and people have disposable income, my choice is the speculation and gambling sector, including platforms like Robinhood, Polymarket, PrizePicks, and Coinbase. People will have more disposable income to place bets and speculate.

The Worst Performing Assets of 2026

Jason: Last year, our predictions for the worst performing assets were astonishingly consistent, almost all pointing to enterprise SaaS and traditional automotive/real estate, and it turned out our judgments were correct. Sacks, which asset do you predict will perform the worst this year?

Sacks: I believe it will be high-end luxury homes in California. Due to the ongoing rumors about the wealth tax, this market will face tremendous pressure.** I even hope that if the wealth tax proposal ultimately fails, there will be a "dead cat bounce" so I can clear out my properties.

Chamath: I believe it will be hydrocarbons, specifically oil. I think the trend of falling oil prices is irreversible.** Regardless of your views on climate change, the trends of electrification and energy storage are unstoppable. This will continually narrow the effective use cases for oil. I think oil prices are more likely to fall to $45 a barrel rather than return to $65.

Friedberg: I believe Netflix will be the worst performing asset (provided they do not complete the acquisition of Warner Bros.), or more broadly, the worst performing will be traditional media stocks. Netflix's content library is facing challenges from all sides, and the conditions they are currently offering to content creators (cost plus 10%) are very harsh, leading many excellent creators to no longer want to collaborate with them. If they do not expand their content library through acquisitions, they will face a huge dilemma. Traditional media is being challenged by independent creators and citizen journalism.

Jason: I choose the dollar.** Our national debt continues to grow, and it is expected to increase by another $2 trillion this year. If President Trump really increases the military budget by 50%, that will directly count towards our debt. All of this will challenge the value of the dollar, which is also one of the reasons we see people turning to gold, silver, and even copper.

The Most Anticipated Trends of 2026

Jason: Last year, the trends we anticipated included the return of M&A and IPOs, the rapid development of AI, and the construction of nuclear energy. This year, what trends are you most looking forward to?

Friedberg: I believe Iran becoming an independent democratic country will be the most anticipated trend this year.** The people there, especially the youth, are yearning for freedom, and the economic crisis is driving this change. This could be the most significant event reshaping the Middle East.

Sacks: The trend I am most looking forward to is the auditing of government spending at all levels. We need to normalize the "decentralized DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency)" so that the public can see where the money is being spent.

Chamath: I am looking forward to the expansion of "Trumpism."** Regardless of your political stance, as an economic participant—whether running a business, investing in the stock market, or participating in cryptocurrency speculation—understanding the changes in the global economic landscape is crucial. Unilateralism and economic resilience are huge trends, and the result will be significant GDP growth.

Jason: I still stand by last year's prediction and extend it into 2026: the return of the IPO market. I believe at least two giants among SpaceX, Anduril, Stripe, Anthropic, or OpenAI will file for an IPO this year. This will ignite the market and be an exciting moment for Silicon Valley, for the employees of these companies, and for the pension funds and endowments holding their shares.

The Biggest Political Winners of 2026

Jason: Alright, let's get into the formal prediction segment. First, who will be the biggest political winner of 2026? Looking back at last year's predictions, Friedberg said it would be young candidates, Gavin (guest host) said it would be Trump and centrism, Chamath said it would be fiscal conservatives, and I said it would be representatives of Generation X and millennials. Friedberg, who is your choice this year?

Friedberg: The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).** Just as the MAGA movement took over the Republican Party, I believe the DSA is taking over the Democratic Party, and this trend will be solidified in 2026.

Chamath: Anyone committed to combating waste, fraud, and abuse at the federal, state, and local levels.** This is an open lane, and I believe this political strategy will be very effective in 2026.

Sacks: I believe the "Trump Boom" will be the biggest political winner. The good news for the economy is already starting to show: inflation has dropped to 2.7%, core CPI is 2.6%, third-quarter GDP growth is 4.3%, and the trade deficit is the lowest since 2009, with a significant drop in layoffs. The S&P 500 continues to hit new highs, oil prices are falling, mortgage costs have decreased by $3,000, and real wages have risen by over $1,000. I predict that by June, we will see a 75 to 100 basis point rate cut, and thanks to larger standard deductions and tax exemptions for tips and overtime, there will be massive refunds in April. All of this will have a huge impact on next year's political landscape.

Jason: What do you predict GDP will be?**

Sacks: I choose 5%.

Chamath: I believe the lower limit is 5%, and the upper limit is 6.2%. You have to understand that if we can reach 6%, the only quasi-competitor in the modern world that can achieve that is China, and that is during a time when it has complete coordination and dominance over federal, state, and local economies. Achieving this under democracy and capitalism would be remarkable.

Friedberg: I predict it will be 4.6%.

Jason: My prediction swings between JD Vance and the "Mamdani Moment" (referring to young socialists like New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani), but I ultimately choose the "Mamdani Moment." He is only 34 years old, and the Democratic Party seems to think that moving towards full socialism is the easiest way to win in 2026. I believe Trump has created space for this route by ignoring the needs of the American working class. He now resembles a neoconservative, bombing seven countries this year and threatening to occupy Colombia and Greenland, which has disappointed many.

The Biggest Political Losers of 2026

Jason: After discussing the winners, let's talk about the losers. Last year, Gavin and I both predicted it would be Putin, Chamath predicted it would be progressives, and Friedberg predicted it would be neoconservatives supporting the war. Sacks, who do you think will be the biggest political loser in 2026?

Sacks: I believe it will be Democratic centrism. This is actually the other side of your belief that socialists will win. There are two reasons:

• First, the socialist ideology is gaining dominance among the Democratic base voters (especially the youth);
• Second, due to districting, the vast majority of congressional districts no longer have real competition, and the only real threat to incumbent Democrats comes from left-wing challengers, so even moderates are being forced to shift left.

Chamath: The biggest loser in 2026 is the Monroe Doctrine. I believe historians will rewrite the narrative of Trump's presidency. I think there is a clear "Trumpism" that has surpassed the Monroe Doctrine. How do we view war? How do we view our sphere of influence? How do we view economic multilateralism versus unilateralism? All of these are outdated. Trump's view is hemispheric dominance, taking proactive intervention in very specific circumstances, such as combating drug cartels, controlling immigration, and securing critical assets. We have more transactional relationships, which allows us to respond at any time.

Friedberg: I believe the biggest political loser in 2026 will be the tech industry. AI and tech wealth have become targets for populism on both the left and right. The right is fracturing internally, and the alliance between tech and MAGA is facing strong challenges from populism; meanwhile, the left is becoming more hardline due to the alliance between tech and the right. I think the midterm elections in 2026 will be a nationwide referendum against the tech industry.

Chamath: Friedberg is absolutely right. I just met with three senior Republican senators yesterday, and they feel very disappointed and distrustful of some tech companies and their leaders.

Sacks: I believe the natural ally of the tech industry is MAGA because we still believe in property rights and innovation. If the Democratic Party really moves towards socialism, they will want to reshape your relationship with property rights. The populist right is angry because they remember censorship, de-platforming, and shadow banning. Tech companies need to have some "truth and reconciliation" meetings with conservatives. Many companies initially did this under pressure from the Biden administration, and they also made a mistake by only donating to leftist causes.

Jason: I agree with Sacks that the biggest political loser in 2026 will be Democratic centrism.

Sacks: Jason, you mentioned twice that Trump is a neoconservative, and I must respond. Neoconservatism is characterized by large-scale invasions, long-term occupations, and nation-building. But did Trump do any of these things? No. Take Venezuela as an example; the entire operation lasted only three hours, with no Americans killed, which was perfect. We did not overthrow the entire regime but cooperated with the existing regime. This is a whole new paradigm, not neoconservatism.

Jason: I admit that Trump's military actions have indeed been very precise and efficient, and our military has performed excellently. But things can always go wrong. If the operation fails and we capture hostages, today's discussion would be completely different. We must remain cautious.