Wintermute: The crypto market needs ETFs to expand investment scope to get out of the predicament, with leading assets driving retail attention back

Wintermute released a latest article stating that 2025 did not bring the expected market surge, but it may be seen as the beginning of cryptocurrencies transitioning from speculative properties to a more mature asset class.

The traditional four-year cycle model is failing. Market performance is no longer dominated by self-fulfilling time narratives, but rather depends on the direction of liquidity flow and the concentration of investor attention. In 2025, there was no situation where funds overflowed from Bitcoin to Ethereum and then to the altcoin market. As retail interest shifted towards the stock market, 2025 became an extremely centralized year. The average rebound cycle for altcoins shortened to 20 days (compared to 60 days in 2024). A few leading assets absorbed the vast majority of new funds, while the broader market struggled.

To break through the limitations of leading assets, at least one of the following three must occur:

• ETFs and digital asset trusts expand their investment scope
• Leading assets like BTC and ETH strongly lead the market
• Retail attention returns from the stock market, etc.

The ultimate outcome will depend on whether these catalysts can truly expand liquidity beyond a few large-cap assets, or if market centralization continues to intensify. Understanding the potential flow of capital and the structural changes required will determine the market dynamics in 2026.