Options market data reflects that traders are bearish on Bitcoin, which may drop to $75,000

Decentralized on-chain options, perpetual contracts, and structured product protocol Derive.xyz traders believe that the probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 is 30%. Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, stated, "The options market shows a clear downward skew, with a 30% chance of Bitcoin dropping below $80,000, while the probability of breaking above $120,000 is only 19%."

Recently, due to ten countries opposing the U.S. takeover plan for Greenland, Trump threatened to impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from these ten European countries, reigniting tariff concerns, which led Bitcoin to drop from $95,000 to $91,000.

Dawson noted that geopolitical tensions could lead to a deeper decline. "The escalation of geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Europe (especially regarding the Greenland dispute) increases the systemic risk of the market returning to a high-volatility environment, a dynamic that has not yet been fully reflected in current spot prices." He explained that the options skew indicator, which measures the difference in prices between call and put options, remains in negative territory, suggesting short-term downside concerns.

Activities on centralized derivatives platforms like Deribit also show the same signals. On both the Derive and Deribit platforms, open interest in put options with strike prices between $75,000 and $80,000 is highly concentrated, reflecting market expectations that prices may dip into the mid-$75,000 range.