Glassnode: The short-term support level for Bitcoin is at $83,400, and the recovery of spot and ETF demand is key to stabilizing the decline

glassnode published a weekly report stating that Bitcoin continues to consolidate near structurally important price levels on-chain, with a delicate balance between holder confidence and marginal demand. The condition of short-term holders remains weak, with the lower bound of the current compression range (-1 standard deviation) at $83,400. This level is a key support in the recent period, and if it is breached, it could lead to a further price pullback towards the real market mean around $80,700. However, the overall capital flow pattern has stabilized.

The selling pressure from ETFs has eased, and there are initial signs of improvement in spot market positions, especially in offshore markets, indicating that buyer interest is beginning to rebuild. Meanwhile, the derivatives market remains restrained, with neutral funding suggesting low market leverage and prices being less influenced by speculative momentum. Adjustments in options positions have reinforced this cautious attitude. The skew has turned bearish, short-term protection pricing has increased, and dealer gamma has fallen below zero, which raises the likelihood of sharp price fluctuations during periods of market volatility.

Moving forward, the key to market trends lies in whether the demand from the spot and ETF channels can be sustained. Continued positive capital inflows and stronger spot buying will support the continuation of the trend, while ongoing weakness and rising downside hedging demand will make the market susceptible to further consolidation or deeper pullbacks.