Dragonfly Partners: The market crash on October 11 was not solely caused by Binance and Ethena as the "single culprit," but rather a combination of multiple factors that triggered the volatility

Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb Qureshi recently published a post regarding the viewpoint that "the market crash on 10/11 was triggered by Binance and Ethena." He stated that this narrative is difficult to establish in terms of timeline, market dissemination path, and evidence. He pointed out that the price of Bitcoin had already bottomed out about 30 minutes before the anomaly in USDe appeared on Binance, indicating that the causal relationship is clearly inverted. Additionally, the deviation in USDe price only occurred on Binance and did not spread to other trading platforms, which cannot explain the large-scale liquidation across the entire market and is fundamentally different from events like Terra that caused global balance sheet shocks.

Haseeb believes that a more reasonable explanation is the combination of multiple factors: Trump's tariff comments disturbed the market on Friday evening, the Binance API anomaly prevented market makers from hedging across platforms, liquidation and the ADL mechanism amplified volatility, and the lack of traditional financial-style circuit breakers and self-stabilizing mechanisms in the crypto market ultimately caused the market to evolve along an unfavorable path. He emphasized that there is no simple and conspiratorial "single culprit" for 10/11; although the market suffered a heavy blow, it has not been permanently damaged in the long run and only needs time to restore liquidity and confidence.