Galaxy Research Director: Bitcoin may further dip to around $70,000, or even test $58,000

Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn posted on the X platform, stating that on-chain data, the technical weakening of key price levels, macroeconomic uncertainty, and the lack of clear catalysts in the short term all indicate that BTC may continue to weaken in the coming weeks to months, potentially dipping near the 200-week moving average. Historically, these levels often represent excellent entry points for long-term investors.

From January 28 to January 31, Bitcoin fell a total of 15%, accelerating its decline over the weekend. On Saturday alone, it dropped by 10%, and currently, about 46% of Bitcoin's supply is in a state of unrealized loss. After the close in January, Bitcoin experienced its first consecutive four-month decline since 2018. Aside from the exceptional year of 2017, Bitcoin has never seen a situation where, after a 40% retracement from its ATH, it did not further expand to a retracement of over 50% within three months. If it were to retrace 50% from the current ATH, the BTC price would be around $63,000.

There is a significant on-chain holding vacuum in the $82,000--$70,000 range, increasing the likelihood of a short-term dip to test demand in that range. The current realized price is about $56,000, and the 200-week moving average is around $58,000. There is still a lack of clear evidence of whales and long-term holders significantly increasing their positions, but the profit-taking by long-term holders is clearly slowing down.

Short-term catalysts remain scarce; Bitcoin has failed to participate in the "currency devaluation hedge trades" alongside gold and silver, and the narrative surrounding it is also unfavorable. Although the potential passing of the crypto market structure legislation (the CLARITY Act) could serve as an exogenous catalyst, the probability of it passing has decreased recently, and even if it does pass, its positive impact is more likely to benefit altcoins rather than BTC.

Despite BTC potentially oscillating near a maximum discount of about -10% from the ETF cost basis (currently around $76,000), considering the above factors, the probability of Bitcoin further dipping to the supply gap bottom near $70,000, and possibly testing the realized price ($56,000) and the 200-week moving average ($58,000) remains high, with a time frame potentially spanning the next few weeks to months. Historically, these areas often mark the cycle bottom and provide strong entry opportunities for long-term investors.