Stifel: Bitcoin price may drop to around $38,000

According to CoinDesk, analysts at financial services company Stifel predict that the price of Bitcoin could drop to around $38,000. This prediction is based on a long-term trend line connecting the major bear market lows of Bitcoin since 2010, which currently points to a position near $38,000.

The analyst team stated in the report that the relationship between Bitcoin and the US dollar, as well as the global money supply, has reversed since 2025. Previously, Bitcoin typically rose when the dollar weakened and global liquidity increased, exhibiting a "reverse growth" characteristic compared to fiat currencies; however, its price trend has now shifted to being positively correlated with the dollar, and its correlation with the Nasdaq index and growth stocks has been increasing.

The report notes that although the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates in its last three meetings of 2025, its stance remains hawkish, while the borrowing costs for tech companies are rising, which could lead to a tightening financial environment and further pressure on the Bitcoin market.