Analysis: Bitcoin has fallen below key daily moving average indicators, and the selling pressure from derivatives may increase or extend the bottoming cycle

CryptoQuant data shows that the Bitcoin price has fallen below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a significant moving average divergence reflecting a correction or "repricing" phase following the previous uptrend. Additionally, CryptoQuant's Price Z-Score is currently -1.6, indicating that the Bitcoin price is below the statistical mean, which typically suggests increased selling pressure and weakened trend momentum. Historically, similar ranges have often corresponded to longer bottoming periods rather than quick rebounds.

In the derivatives market, crypto analyst Darkfost pointed out that the seller-dominated pattern is strengthening. Data shows that last Sunday, the monthly net active trading volume (Net Taker Volume) turned significantly negative to -$272 million, while the active buy-sell ratio on Binance dropped below 1, indicating a significant increase in market selling pressure. Currently, futures trading volume is still significantly higher than spot inflows, and the market needs stronger spot buying to trigger a rebound.