Analysis: Bitcoin falls below $67,000, bearish sentiment prevails, and the deleveraging in the derivatives market continues to intensify

The bearish sentiment in the crypto market dominates, with Bitcoin and Ethereum continuing their downward trend. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has dropped about 2.4% to around $66,900, while Ethereum has fallen about 2.7% below the $2,000 mark.

On the macro front, the dollar has weakened, and U.S. Treasury yields have declined, leading to increased market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Polymarket shows the probability of a rate cut in March rising from 7% at the beginning of the month to about 19%, while the Kalshi market is around 21%. In the derivatives market, BTC futures open interest has fallen to $15.6 billion, indicating a continued deleveraging trend, with funding rates turning further negative (approximately -6% on Binance, about -0.5% on Bybit). The three-month basis has narrowed to 1.6%, reflecting a rapid cooling of institutional risk appetite.