Matrixport Research: Bear Market Confirmed, the Real Bottom-Fishing Window May Still Not Have Arrived

Recent Bitcoin prices have fallen below the key level indicated in the report dated October 31, 2025, confirming the downward trend. From a historical cycle comparison, the magnitude and rhythm of this round of pullback are highly similar to past bear market phases. Consequently, the market's focus has shifted from "whether the trend has reversed" to "when the next more favorable allocation window will arrive."

Looking back at this cycle, we identified the bull market's starting point based on the cycle framework on October 28, 2022, and projected the peak of this cycle could reach $125,000 on July 6, 2023. Around the peak in late 2024 to October 2025, Bitcoin has repeatedly shown characteristics of the fifth bull market nearing its end; with the loss of key levels, the market has officially entered the confirmation phase of a bear market.

In this context, we have evaluated the potential low price range and corresponding time using multiple quantitative models, including the one-year moving average, monthly Stochastics, and monthly RSI, to determine whether the downside risk has been largely cleared and whether the market has begun to accumulate conditions for a transition from weak to strong.

After Breaking the One-Year Moving Average, the Cycle Timeframe Begins to Point to 2026

In November 2025, Bitcoin fell below the one-year moving average. Historical experience shows that this signal often corresponds to the start of a bear market, and past bear market phases typically last about 12 months. Based on this, the next bull market may start in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the cycle low likely occurring earlier in the third quarter of 2026.

From a broader perspective, we believe that Bitcoin's "four-year cycle" is not primarily driven by block reward halving but is more likely to resonate with the rhythm of the U.S. midterm election cycle. Historical data shows that the midterm election cycles of 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022, and the upcoming 2026 have all coincided with major bear market phases. Compared to the halving mechanism, the regulatory and political uncertainties brought about by midterm elections better explain the timing distribution of Bitcoin's cycle peaks and troughs.

Technical Indicators Have Not Yet Reached Key Thresholds; Bottoming Still Requires "Reversal Confirmation"

On the technical side, the monthly Stochastics indicator has typically completed bottoming after falling below the 15% "deeply oversold" zone in the past five cycles, followed by an upward reversal within 1 to 3 months, marking the end of the bear market. Currently, this indicator is around 39%, not yet reaching the key threshold.

Similarly, the monthly RSI usually forms a key support zone around 48 in historical cycles, with true bottoming signals often appearing during the "initial break below key levels, followed by a turnaround" reversal confirmation phase. The current RSI is around 50, close to the key range, but has not yet shown a clear "break and rebound" structure.

Both core indicators have not provided clear bottoming confirmation: the market has yet to show the "final round of concentrated clearing" corresponding to the reversal confirmation.

Overall, the final low of this bear market may not have been reached yet. Historical experience shows that Bitcoin often completes bottoming during phases of low trading volume, gradually diminishing selling pressure, and declining market participation, while rapid pullbacks accompanied by chain liquidations and increased volume resemble a phase of capitulation selling rather than the ultimate cycle low.

From the dual perspectives of the political cycle framework and technical indicator validation, we are more inclined to believe that the truly worthwhile allocation window requires waiting for key monthly indicators to reach extreme ranges before showing reversal confirmation. Current prices are close to historical low ranges, but reversal signals have not yet appeared, and patience is still needed in the bear market's final phase. The premise for orderly reallocation is to confirm the exhaustion of downward momentum, rather than merely judging trend reversal based on prices approaching low levels.

The above views are partially derived from Matrix on Target. Contact us to obtain the complete report from Matrix on Target.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.