Wintermute: Bitcoin finds support at the 200-week moving average, a clear macro outlook is needed to restart the upward trend

According to market news, as spot trading volume continues to shrink, leverage has become the main driving factor for short-term fluctuations. In the absence of "structural buying" (long-term funds that can absorb selling pressure), the market will experience sharp rises and falls on both the bullish and bearish sides.

From a technical perspective, BTC has found support near its 200-week moving average, which historically has often been the location where bear market bottoms form. Wintermute believes that until clear signals re-emerge at the macro level, each rebound will be viewed as an opportunity to de-risk rather than a reason to chase prices higher. For crypto, the key to returning to an upward trajectory still depends on macro clarity. The 200-week moving average remains supportive, and there has been no structural damage to the market, which means that once macro uncertainty dissipates, the pace of recovery could be faster than current sentiment suggests. In the short term, we are in a range-bound, slightly downward state; the market is dominated by leverage, and the $70,000 level remains an important resistance point in the near term.