Analyst: The Bitcoin bear market is about to enter its second phase, and improvement in liquidity still needs to be awaited
Feb 18, 2026 14:07:13
Analyst Willy Woo states that I have bad news for those who are perpetually bullish: the bear market trend for Bitcoin is still ongoing and should be divided into three phases:
Phase One ------ The Beginning. At this point, Bitcoin's liquidity has collapsed, a situation that occurred in the third quarter of 2025, and prices began to fall. Bitcoin, as a small-scale asset, is extremely sensitive to liquidity. Because of this, it often leads the global macroeconomy into a bear market, typically several months in advance. In other words, when smart money exits, Bitcoin reacts swiftly. During this phase, die-hard bulls will blindly claim that this is just a pullback within the bull market, but they cannot provide any solid evidence of capital inflows, only fabricating stories.
Phase Two ------ The Global Stock Market Turns Bearish. This is a behemoth with a scale of up to $100 trillion, akin to a giant supertanker—moving slowly. This is the mid-phase of the Bitcoin bear market, where all risk assets are declining, and there is no doubt that we are in a bear market.
Phase Three ------ Signs of Dawn. In this phase, liquidity begins to improve, capital outflows peak and stabilize. Investors are returning. The final price crash usually occurs during this phase, possibly shortly before or after the peak of capital outflows.
Within the current bear market framework, Bitcoin is currently in Phase One, about to enter Phase Two.
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