K33: Bitcoin enters the "late bear market zone," market signals are similar to the bottom in late 2022

According to market news, research and brokerage firm K33 stated that the current Bitcoin market structure, derivative positions, and ETF fund flows are highly similar to the late stages of the 2022 bear market, indicating a potential long-term consolidation rather than a rapid rebound.

K33's research director Vetle Lunde noted that their proprietary indicators show a "striking similarity" between the current situation and September and November 2022 (close to the bear market bottom). However, historical experience suggests that market bottoms are often accompanied by prolonged consolidation, with an average 90-day return of only about 3% in similar environments. Data shows that Bitcoin has dropped nearly 28% since January, with the funding rate being negative for 11 consecutive days, and open interest falling below 260,000 BTC, as long positions are being liquidated.

Spot trading volume decreased by 59% week-over-week, and futures open interest has fallen to a four-month low. On the institutional side, CME traders are relatively inactive, with Bitcoin ETP holdings decreasing by 103,113 BTC from last October's peak, but 93% of peak exposure remains, indicating that institutions are primarily reducing exposure rather than completely exiting.

The Fear and Greed Index recently hit a historical low of 5, but Lunde pointed out that the average 90-day return from buying during extreme fear periods is only 2.4%, far lower than the 95% during extreme greed periods, suggesting that fear does not reliably predict a strong rebound. He expects Bitcoin to consolidate in the range of $60,000 to $75,000 for an extended period, noting that the current entry point is attractive but requires patience.