Analysis: SOPR has dropped to the range of 0.92–0.94, indicating macro marginal improvement, but the structural bull market for BTC has not yet been established

Bitfinex released an analysis report indicating that the decline in inflation in the U.S. market and the rise in interest rate cut expectations provide psychological support for risk assets, but the cryptocurrency market is more likely to experience phase fluctuations rather than a one-sided trend.

The expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduces systemic liquidity risks, which historically tends to benefit scarce assets like Bitcoin. However, the current pace of liquidity recovery is relatively slow, and selling pressure on spot Bitcoin re-emerged earlier this week, with cumulative sell-offs reaching several billion dollars. Although the market's ability to absorb sell orders has improved compared to before, on-chain indicators show that the adjusted SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has dropped to the range of 0.92–0.94, reflecting that most cryptocurrencies are being transferred at a loss, indicating that structural pressure still exists.

The current macro environment provides a certain liquidity buffer for the cryptocurrency market, but it is still insufficient to support a sustained bull market. Bitcoin has tactical rebound potential in the short term, while long-term structural upward movement requires clearer signals of declining inflation and sustained spot demand support.