Analysis shows that BTC faith buyers' positions have reached a new record high for this cycle, and the bottom of the bear market is no longer far away

Cryptanalysis expert Murphy stated that analyzing on-chain data from both spatial and temporal dimensions, the current distance to the "bear bottom" is no longer far off. Spatially, taking the previous cycle as an example, in June 2022, BTC fell to a low of $17,000, which is not far from the ultimate absolute bottom price of $15,000, indicating that it is already in the "bear bottom" range. However, it took a full 7 months to truly emerge and complete the bottom reconstruction.

Currently, in terms of "space," we are getting closer to the bear bottom, but in terms of "time," there is still a considerable distance. The focus is on observing the behavior of conviction-driven buyers (Conviction Buyers, hereinafter referred to as CB), who, as the smartest diamond hands in this market, often buy during declines and sell after increases. In other words, rather than saying they frequently buy at the bottom, it is more accurate to say that the bottom is often constructed by this group of buyers. As of February, conviction buyers have accumulated a holding of 3.48 million BTC, setting a new record for this cycle. Since January of this year, they have significantly increased their holdings by 1.22 million BTC, a figure that far exceeds the previous cycle's events of 5.19, the LUNA crash, and the FTX collapse. Moreover, the current BTC price is above these time points, indicating that "smart decision-makers" have invested more funds at this time.

Although the final bottom position is difficult to predict, for the CB group, they do not hope to go all in at the lowest point; as long as there is sufficient cost-effectiveness, they will continue to buy until all excess supply is absorbed. When a balance is achieved on both the supply and demand sides, it forms the bottom range of the bear market, after which, through months of consensus reconstruction, a new trend will emerge. From historical data, the determination and strength displayed by conviction-driven buyers currently fully meet the standard of "not far from the bear bottom."