Wintermute: The level that ETH truly needs to focus on is around $1600, and institutional demand has not yet returned

Wintermute released a market report on social media indicating that since the series of liquidations two weeks ago, BTC has attempted to break through the $70,000 mark multiple times without success. The lack of a decent rebound attempt is more compelling than the oscillating range itself. Price movements are choppy, liquidity is thin, and the range is narrowing with a lack of directional conviction.

ETH fell below $1,900 this week, a level that is psychologically more significant than technically, with the level that ETH really needs to focus on being around $1,600. Although the price has stabilized, institutional demand does not seem to have returned, as we clearly observed in the previous price range of $85,000 to $95,000.

The derivatives market reflects a lack of directional views and trading willingness, with the basis at multi-month lows, bearish option skew remaining high and continuing to rise, and open interest declining since October. On the trading desk, the capital flow is skewed towards selling activities.

However, an interesting signal emerged mid-week, as high-net-worth investors briefly showed buying interest in some altcoins, which is a small but noteworthy spark of confidence in an overall defensive environment, though it quickly dissipated. As we entered the latter half of the week, the market fell back into oscillation, with any willingness to enter fading, indicating that the market is not yet ready to reward early positioning. Marginal activity remains driven by protection rather than conviction.