Analysis: Bitcoin traders show "excessive loss" signals, which may drive the price below $44,000

According to market news, Glassnode data shows that the realized profit and loss ratio of Bitcoin traders (90-day moving average) has fallen below 1, indicating that investors are selling their holdings at a loss. This is the first time such a signal has appeared since 2022.

Historical data shows that when this indicator falls below 1, it is usually accompanied by at least six months of loss realization and suggests further price decline: during the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin dropped 25% within six months after the indicator fell below 1, and in 2018, it fell over 50% within five months. Glassnode points out that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin may "fully transition into a phase of excessive loss realization," with the price decline potentially lasting more than five months.

Based on the MVRV pricing range indicator, Bitcoin's current extreme low value area is around $43,760, a level that has historically coincided with bear market bottoms and is also within the potential bottom range of $40,000-$50,000 predicted by several analysts.