Bitget UEX Daily Report | US-Iran Conflict Escalates, Disturbing the Market; Oil Prices and Gold and Silver Soar, Stock Index Futures Drop; Tech Stocks Show Performance Divergence (March 2, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

No significant updates from the Federal Reserve.

International Commodities

International crude oil opened up $8, gold and silver all opened higher on Monday International oil prices surged $8 at the opening, affected by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict leading to disruptions in oil transportation.

• Brent crude reached $82.37 per barrel, WTI crude rose to $75.33 per barrel.
• Risk aversion sentiment drove spot gold up 1.8% to $5374 per ounce, and spot silver up 2.6% to $96 per ounce. Brief analysis of market impact: Rising oil prices may exacerbate inflationary pressures, while safe-haven demand supports precious metals, but rising global energy costs may suppress economic growth.

OPEC+ confirms an increase in production of 206,000 barrels per day in April, reiterates flexible adjustments OPEC+ agreed to gradually restore some voluntary production cuts based on economic stability and low inventories, with an increase of 206,000 barrels per day in April.

• Emphasized that plans can be paused or reversed based on market changes.
• The stable global economic outlook supports this decision. Brief analysis of market impact: Increased production helps balance supply, but if geopolitical risks persist, it may limit the downside for oil prices and drive short-term volatility.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump states that military actions against Iran are expected to last four weeks President Trump responded for the first time to US military casualties in the Iran conflict, estimating that actions will last about four weeks.

• Three US soldiers were killed, the outcome was within expectations.
• Iran launched its ninth round of strikes, and the US military destroyed the Revolutionary Guard headquarters. Brief analysis of market impact: Prolonged conflict increases uncertainty, leading to a rise in demand for safe-haven assets, putting pressure on global stock markets and potentially amplifying volatility.

Trump indicates that Iran's new leadership is open to dialogue and agrees to negotiate Trump revealed that the new Iranian leadership is willing to engage in dialogue and expressed a desire for communication.

• Some original negotiators have passed away.
• Emphasized that action should have been taken earlier to reach an agreement. Brief analysis of market impact: Potential signals for negotiation may ease tensions and help restore market sentiment, but actual progress remains uncertain and risks persist.

Hong Kong's Financial Secretary states that contingency plans are in place to address Middle East conflict risks Chan Mo-po pointed out that Hong Kong's trade with Iran is limited, but the escalation of conflict increases global uncertainty.

• Financial market volatility is increasing, and funds may flow into Hong Kong as a safe haven.
• Assessing the impact on oil prices, gold prices, and transportation costs. Brief analysis of market impact: Strengthening Hong Kong's status as a safe haven may attract capital inflows into Asia, enhancing regional market resilience.

Experts analyze the impact of the Middle East situation escalation on global stock markets Tian Lihui stated that the escalation of conflict impacts through risk repricing, energy cost shocks, and monetary policy dilemmas.

• Depends on the scope and duration, currently a structural shock.
• Markets heavily reliant on oil imports face significant adjustment pressures. Brief analysis of market impact: Entering a high-volatility differentiation period, European and Asian stock markets face significant pressure, while the US remains relatively resilient.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Up 1.57% + Strong opening trend
• Spot Silver: Up 1.1% + Prominent safe-haven demand
• WTI Crude Oil: Up 7.42% to $71.99 per barrel + Supply concerns driven by geopolitical conflict
• US Dollar Index: Up 0.33% to 97.96, remaining strong + Supported by inflation data and risk aversion sentiment

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Up 0.21% to $66,583 + Slight rebound after minor fluctuations
• ETH: Up 0.21% to $1,958
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Down 0.8% to $2.36 trillion
• Market Liquidation Situation: $412 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with $240 million in long positions liquidated

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Down 1.05% + Continues to face pressure
• S&P 500: Down 0.43% + Mild adjustment
• Nasdaq: Down 0.92% + Weighed down by tech sector

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVIDIA: Down over 4%
• Apple: Down over 3%
• Microsoft: Down over 2%
• Tesla: Down over 1%
• Meta: Down over 1%
• Netflix: Up nearly 14%
• Google: Up over 1%
• Amazon: Up 1% Core reasons for the rise and fall: PPI inflation exceeded expectations, credit crisis, and the US-Iran war created triple pressure leading to most declines, while some benefited from performance or sector rotation.

Sector Movement Observation

Financial Sector down over 5%

• Representative stocks: Goldman Sachs, down over 7%
• Driving factors: The bankruptcy exposure of UK private equity firm MFS revealed a £2 billion risk exposure for major banks, exacerbating credit concerns.

Oil and Gas Exploration and Development broadly up

• Representative stocks: Battalion Oil, up over 33%
• Driving factors: Oil prices opened high due to geopolitical conflict, with supply disruption expectations boosting demand for energy stocks.

Gold and Silver Stocks mostly up

• Representative stocks: First Majestic Silver, up nearly 3%
• Driving factors: Rising risk aversion sentiment and high opening prices for gold and silver drove mining stocks to rebound.

# 3. In-depth Stock Analysis

1. CoreWeave - Q1 Guidance Below Expectations

Event Overview: Stock price fell over 18%, with Q1 revenue guidance of $1.9-2 billion, below analyst expectations of $2.29 billion, mainly due to early recognition of data center leasing, power, and depreciation costs. The company emphasized strong demand for AI computing power, with customer contracts extended to 5 years, and self-developed cloud architecture software certified by NVIDIA, indicating significant potential for high-margin software revenue in the future. Market Interpretation: Institutional views suggest that after normalizing operations, a long-term profit margin of 25%-30% can be achieved, with short-term cost pressures being normal. Investment Insight: Short-term profit pressure exists, but strong AI demand makes it suitable for long-term holding and observation.

2. Dell Technologies - Surge in AI Server Orders, Strong Earnings Outlook

Event Overview: Stock price rose nearly 22% against the trend, with Q4 revenue hitting a record $33.4 billion, up 39% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of $31.7 billion; diluted EPS of $3.89, up 45% year-on-year, surpassing expectations of $3.52. The company expects FY2027 revenue of $138-142 billion, a 23% year-on-year increase, higher than the analyst expectation of $126.3 billion. Market Interpretation: Institutional analysis shows that demand for AI servers is driving performance above expectations, reflecting a recovery in tech investment. Investment Insight: AI themes significantly drive growth, highlighting allocation value.

3. Duolingo - Q1 and Full-Year Booking Outlook Below Expectations

Event Overview: Stock price plummeted over 14%, with Q4 revenue increasing 35% to $282.9 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $84.3 million, both exceeding expectations; daily active users increased 30% to 52.7 million, but this was the slowest growth in four years. The company expects Q1 revenue of $288.5 million and adjusted EBITDA of $73.6 million, below market expectations, and plans to increase AI investment to drive growth. Market Interpretation: Needham lowered the target price from $300 to $145, expressing concerns over the slowdown in short-term profit growth. Investment Insight: AI investment may bring long-term benefits, but caution is needed due to short-term profit margin pressures.

4. Berkshire Hathaway - Buffett Delivers a Perfect 2025 Report and Retires

Event Overview: 2025 per-share market value growth of 10.9%, compared to 17.9% for the S&P 500; compound annual growth rate of 19.7% from 1965-2025, exceeding the S&P's 10.5%; market value growth of 60,992 times from 1964-2025. Buffett officially retired on December 31, stepping down as CEO but remaining as chairman of the board, retaining a significant number of shares. Market Interpretation: Institutions appreciate the long-term outstanding performance, viewing it as a benchmark for value investment. Investment Insight: Smooth management transition and long-term stability remain attractive.

5. SpaceX - Considering Secret IPO Filing as Early as March

Event Overview: SpaceX is accelerating the largest IPO in history, with plans to submit a confidential registration draft to the SEC as early as March, targeting a June listing and aiming to raise $50 billion, setting a new global IPO record. Market Interpretation: Bloomberg cites insider opinions that this move reflects the potential of the space economy, but execution risks need to be monitored. Investment Insight: High growth opportunities exist, but valuation bubbles and regulatory uncertainties require cautious assessment.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Arthur Hayes: If the US intervenes in the Iran conflict long-term, it will force the Federal Reserve to print money and drive up Bitcoin prices.

2. JPMorgan: The cryptocurrency market structure bill is expected to be approved by mid-year and become a positive catalyst in the second half.

3. The X platform has removed "financial products, cryptocurrencies" from the banned industry categories in its "paid cooperation policy."

4. Michael Saylor has released Bitcoin Tracker information again, which may disclose increased holdings data.

5. Median historical return rates for Bitcoin and Ethereum in March: -1.55% and -9.33%, respectively.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

• Manufacturing Data Release: All day - Focus on manufacturing sentiment as an economic signal.
• Geopolitical Developments: All day - Monitor the latest developments in the US-Iran conflict.

Institutional Views:

Notable investment bank analysts indicate that Goldman Sachs believes the rise in gold prices is not a sign of a commodity supercycle, as gold supply is highly constrained compared to metals like copper. Short-term geopolitical risks support gold prices, but a strong dollar triggers profit-taking. Morgan Stanley and Goldman raised oil price targets due to supply disruptions and OPEC+ policies, expecting increased oil price volatility. Regarding US stocks, Morgan Stanley is concerned about inflation and AI disruption leading to declines, while a strong dollar suppresses risk assets, but the overall market is in a high-volatility differentiation phase that requires attention to pressures in Europe and Asia.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication only, and should not be considered as any investment advice.