Bitget UEX Daily Report | Iran conflict drives up oil prices; US plans global regulation of AI chips; Non-farm payroll data to be released (March 6, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Employment data set to be released, inflation concerns intensify

• The U.S. non-farm payroll report for February will be released tonight at 21:30, with the market expecting hiring to slow but the unemployment rate to remain stable.
• The number of initial jobless claims rose slightly last week, but the four-week average fell to 215,750, indicating resilience in the labor market.
• Under inflationary pressure, this data may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, potentially boosting the dollar and suppressing risk assets.

International Commodities

Iran conflict spills over, causing oil prices to soar

• WTI crude oil reached a new high since July 2024, with Saudi Arabia significantly raising crude prices for Asia to the largest increase since August 2022.
• The U.S. is considering releasing strategic reserves or coordinating international actions to mitigate the impact of rising oil prices on the global supply chain.
• Heightened geopolitical risks may further drive up energy costs, fueling inflation and weakening economic recovery momentum.

Macroeconomic Policy

U.S. plans to extend AI chip export controls globally

• A government draft requires companies like Nvidia and AMD to obtain approval for exports, aiming to control global AI development.
• Over 20 states are suing the Trump administration over a 15% global tariff plan, claiming it overreaches and harms the economy.
• This move strengthens U.S. technological hegemony but may trigger international trade frictions, affecting supply chain stability and market confidence.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: -0.06% to $5,078/oz, fluctuating for three consecutive days but supported by geopolitical tensions.
• Spot Silver: -0.34% to $82/oz.
• WTI Crude Oil: -2.91% to $78.69, reaching a high of $82.16 yesterday, marking a recent peak. The driving factor remains the disruption of supplies in the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran conflict.
• Brent Crude Oil: -2.35% to $83.40/barrel, driven by similar geopolitical spillover effects, with supply concerns dominating.
• Dollar Index: -0.06% to 98.988.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: -3.23% to $70,825, experiencing a short-term pullback but maintaining above the $70,000 mark, with increasing volatility in consecutive movements.
• ETH: -2.92%, following the market adjustment.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: -1.6%, total market cap at $2.49 trillion.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation amount in 24H is $242 million, with long positions liquidated at $160 million and short positions at $82 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price around $70,931, with a significant concentration of high-leverage long position liquidations in the $69,500--$70,500 range; a drop below this may trigger a chain reaction of long liquidations, accelerating the downward trend. The $73,500--$75,000 range has significant short liquidation pressure; if prices rise, it may trigger a short squeeze, rapidly pushing the market up.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: Yesterday, BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of $0.966 billion; ETH spot ETF had a net outflow of $8.9 million.
• BTC Spot Inflow/Outflow: In the last 24 hours, inflow was $3.184 billion, outflow was $3.586 billion, resulting in a net outflow of $401 million.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: -1.61% closing at 47,954.74, declining for two consecutive days, dragged down by the energy sector.
• S&P 500: -0.57% closing at 6,830.71, characterized by a divergence between technology and energy sectors.
• Nasdaq: -0.26% closing at 22,748.99, driven by strong AI stocks but overall dominated by risk-averse sentiment.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Nvidia: +0.16%, benefiting from AI chip demand but affected by export control draft.
• AMD: -1.3%, increased uncertainty due to export license requirements.
• Microsoft: +1.2%, boosted by AI product launches.
• Amazon: +0.9%, supported by cloud service growth.
• Apple: -0.85%, concerns over supply chain.
• Google: -0.74%, stable advertising business.
• Meta: -1.2%, user growth on social platforms but facing regulatory pressure. Summary of core reasons for fluctuations: AI-related stocks received technical boosts, but geopolitical conflicts and regulatory drafts triggered an overall pullback.

Sector Movement Observation

Energy Sector up 8%

• Representative stock: Chevron, +2.1%.
• Driving factor: Iran conflict drives up oil prices, supply disruption concerns stimulate demand.

Semiconductor Sector down 1.5%

• Representative stock: Broadcom, +4.9%.
• Driving factor: AI chip export control draft increases uncertainty, despite strong performance.

Technology Application Software Sector up 5%

• Representative stock: Trade Desk, +18%.
• Driving factor: Strong demand for advertising and AI integration.

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Marvell Technology - Q4 Performance Exceeds Expectations

Event Overview: Marvell's Q4 fiscal year net revenue was $2.219 billion, a 22% year-on-year increase, exceeding the guidance midpoint by $190 million; adjusted net profit was $685 million, with diluted earnings per share of $0.80. The company's CEO stated that revenue growth for fiscal year 2027 will accelerate quarter by quarter, driven by momentum in the data center business and order growth. Despite facing AI funding shortages, the company emphasized strong investment in AI cloud business. Market Interpretation: Institutional views suggest this performance reflects a rebound in semiconductor demand; KIS analysis indicates that new inference chips will not replace HBM/DRAM but will complement niche markets. Investment Insight: Short-term after-hours surge of nearly 15%, recommend focusing on data center exposure but remain cautious of global regulatory risks.

2. Nvidia - New Inference Chip Under Development

Event Overview: Nvidia's GTC conference will introduce a new inference chip based on Groq's SRAM architecture, raising investor concerns about reduced HBM demand. However, institutions clarified that SRAM is a complement for low-latency scenarios, not a substitute. The company also faces global export license requirements, needing to apply to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Market Interpretation: KIS pointed out market misinterpretation; memory tier segmentation will expand industry scale; Evercore believes regulations aim to position the U.S. as the gatekeeper of AI, rather than a ban. Investment Insight: Chip innovation supports long-term growth; buy amid regulatory uncertainties.

3. Oracle - Plans to Lay Off Thousands

Event Overview: Oracle plans to lay off thousands to alleviate funding pressures from AI data center expansion, with layoffs potentially starting this month, affecting the entire company, and a hiring freeze in the cloud department. AI cloud business investments are substantial, expecting negative cash flow, planning to raise $50 billion; stock price has fallen 54% from the September 2025 peak. Market Interpretation: Bloomberg analysis indicates high AI investments have triggered a wave of layoffs in the tech industry, with funding shortages being a common challenge. Investment Insight: Significant short-term pressure; monitor financing progress to assess rebound potential.

4. Berkshire Hathaway - Resumes Stock Buybacks

Event Overview: Berkshire Hathaway, holding $373.3 billion in cash, resumed buybacks of Class A and B shares this week; successor CEO Greg Abel will use all salary increases for stock purchases and commits to doing so annually. The company's policy allows the CEO to repurchase shares when prices are below intrinsic value. Market Interpretation: Regulatory filings show the last buyback was in Q2 2024; institutions view this as a confidence signal, with cash reserves supporting defensiveness. Investment Insight: A top choice for long-term value investment; buy at current low valuations.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. OpenAI launches the GPT-5.4 model, emphasizing factuality and efficiency, supporting 1 million context tokens, enhancing long-context retention.

2. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that Bitcoin has risen about 12% since Iran launched airstrikes and geopolitical tensions escalated, while Gold has declined; however, this does not imply that Gold as a safe-haven asset has "failed" or that Bitcoin completely replaces its function. Balchunas emphasized that short-term price performance may be more driven by changes in market-making participation, such as Jane Street, and market sentiment; Gold's pullback may also be due to profit-taking by investors or some funds rotating into Bitcoin, and drawing conclusions about asset nature based on short-term trends is problematic.

3. Bitcoin mining company CleanSpark released its February operational update, producing 568 Bitcoins during the month while selling 553, achieving a sales ratio of 97%, one of the highest reported by the company; at an average price of $66,279, this generated approximately $36.65 million in cash. This sale aims to fund its expansion into AI and high-performance computing data centers.

4. Hyperliquid token HYPE's deflationary mechanism is activated, with an average daily trading volume reaching $1 billion, unlocking 9.92 million HYPE on March 6.

5. Dynamic Funds launched a multi-crypto ETF DXMC, including BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP, providing diversified exposure.

6. Suspected to be influenced by Aave governance disputes, investment firm ParaFi Capital may have swapped AAVE for SKY worth $5 million in the last three days.

7. Short-selling firm Culper Research announced a short position on Ethereum and ETH-related securities, including BMNR. The firm believes that the ETH tokenomics has been damaged since the Fusaka upgrade in December 2025, which raised the gas limit to 45 million to 60 million; the expected gas fees were to decrease by 10-30%, but they actually dropped by about 90%. Vitalik and validators' calculations of L1 demand elasticity are based on outdated models, with errors of 3-9 times.

8. CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated that Bitcoin's recent rise resembles a short-term "relief rally" driven by easing selling pressure rather than the start of a new bullish cycle. He pointed out that although Bitcoin briefly rebounded above $73,000, on-chain data indicates that the market remains in a bearish environment, with its Bitcoin long score index still only at 10 points (out of 100).

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

• March 6 (Friday)
  21:30 ET February unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls will be released, with an expected addition of 60,000 jobs. (5 stars)

Institutional Views:

Renowned investment bank analysts hold a cautiously optimistic view on market trends over the past 24 hours. Goldman Sachs raised its Q2 Brent crude oil forecast to $76/barrel, emphasizing that if the Iran conflict continues for five weeks, it could rise to $100, leading to demand destruction. Morgan Stanley pointed out that the divergence among U.S. tech giants stems from the AI regulatory draft, but strong demand for data centers supports companies like Nvidia; precious metals benefit from safe-haven demand, with margin reductions for gold and silver releasing liquidity. In the oil and forex sectors, Deutsche Bank warns that the dollar's safe-haven status is challenged by AI risks, but DXY remains strong in the short term. In the crypto space, Bernstein predicts BTC could reach $150,000, with the market cap doubling, but short-term volatility increases caution regarding liquidations. Overall, geopolitical risks dominate, and it is recommended to diversify allocations to defensive assets.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice.