Analysis: Bitcoin has entered a deep bear market phase and may drop another 30% within the year

According to CoinDesk, CK Zheng, founder of the crypto hedge fund ZX Squared Capital, stated that Bitcoin has entered a deep bear market phase, and as the influence of the "four-year cycle" intensifies, the price may further decline by about 30% by 2026.

Previously, Bitcoin reached a historical high of over $126,000 in October 2025, approximately 16-18 months after the halving in April 2024. It has now fallen back to around $68,000, following the four-year cycle pattern centered around halving. The psychological behavior of retail investors, who chase prices during market euphoria and panic sell during downturns, has reinforced this bear market cycle. Meanwhile, institutional adoption remains limited, with crypto ETFs and digital asset reserve companies accounting for only about 10% of the overall market. In a bear market environment, some companies that use Bitcoin as a reserve asset may be forced to sell assets due to debt repayment pressures, thereby exacerbating downward market pressure.