The rising potential inflation risks weaken the expectations for interest rate cuts, with only a 2.6% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains turbulent, and rising oil prices have increased potential inflation risks while weakening expectations for interest rate cuts. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the current probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March is only 2.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 97.4%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current rate until April is 85.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 14.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.3%.

The dates for the next two FOMC meetings are March 18 and April 29.