Wintermute: The escalation of the Middle East situation drives oil prices up, while crypto assets perform well against the trend

Wintermute released a market report indicating that the Middle East conflict has entered its second week, with Brent crude oil surging 26% this week. Energy inflation pressures have led the market to compress expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut to just once. Major risk assets fell broadly: S&P 500 -2%, Nasdaq -1.2%, Russell 2000 -4%, and gold also declined due to deleveraging.

Cryptocurrency assets have become the standout asset class this week, with BTC +0.4%, ETH flat, and altcoins -0.4%, showing signs of loosening correlation with stocks. Wintermute's analysis suggests that the current leverage in the crypto market is about $60 billion, only half of its peak, and the relatively low forced selling pressure is the main reason for outperformance.

Bitcoin's resilience in a risk-averse environment has also brought its inflation hedge narrative back into focus. Next week's FOMC meeting will be a key catalyst; if the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance or the situation escalates further, it could pose a downside risk to the market.