The price difference exceeds 50%, and the pre-market arbitrage market for cryptocurrency stocks will become a new business in the crypto bear market

Original | Odaily Planet Daily Wenser

Recently, Mysten Labs CEO evan.sui shared his views on the "bear market". He mentioned that he does not agree with the notion that "the bear market is good, keep building." In fact, the bear market is not "great," and packaging it as beneficial for everyone ignores the real costs (such as discouraging builders and users). Many retail investors and excellent teams will face cash flow breakage and have to exit, ultimately harming the long-term development of the crypto industry.

However, the data evidence does not align with this viewpoint. A report released by Lattice VC in October 2024 showed that over 80% of crypto startups that announced seed round financing during the 2022 bear market are still in development. In other words, if project teams can ensure relative stability in personnel and funding, the bear market can indeed be more favorable for project construction and development. The reasons may include that during a bear market, project teams focus more on product development and experience optimization; or perhaps the bear market can cultivate various survival skills for project teams. In summary, being in a crypto bear market, aspiring project teams may find a way to survive and carve out their own development path.

In light of this, we will explore potential employment tracks and project directions during this cycle through a series of articles titled "Crypto Bear Market Entrepreneurship Guide." If there are indeed crypto projects that emerge and grow rapidly from this, Odaily Planet Daily welcomes project teams to discuss cooperation.

Today, let's first talk about the hottest potential entrepreneurial direction aside from prediction markets------the pre-market price difference market for crypto stocks.

The Real Demand for Crypto Stock Pre-Market: Platform Differentiation and Liquidity Bridges

As a bridge connecting the crypto market and traditional financial markets, crypto stock trading platforms have not only attracted significant attention and active participation from crypto project teams, but also global leading securities platforms, including Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange, have entered the fray, aiming to capture incremental market share while further activating liquidity in traditional financial markets.

Moreover, it is not just the listed crypto concept stocks that have welcomed stock tokenization and on-chain contract transformation; many popular concept stocks that have not yet gone public have also received enthusiastic support from both the crypto market and traditional financial markets, thus giving rise to numerous pre-market stock tokenization trading platforms.

Considering that this year the capital market is about to welcome a series of IPOs from AI model companies, commercial space companies, prediction market platforms, and crypto exchanges such as OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX (xAI), Kalshi, Polymarket, OKX, and Kraken, there is no doubt that 2026 is destined to be a "big year for IPOs."

Against the backdrop of the crypto market fluctuating with occasional rebounds and the stock market rising steadily, the heat of the stock pre-market trading market further supports the above viewpoint------there is strong demand for pre-market trading of popular concept stocks in both the crypto market and traditional financial markets.

This is the main reason why stock pre-market trading platforms like PreStocks, Jarsy, and Tessera have emerged. Additionally, compared to traditional financial markets' pre-market trading platforms like Hiive and Nasdaq Private Market, the trading methods, purchase limits, and entry thresholds in the crypto pre-market trading market are more flexible, and the premiums are relatively higher, which has led to enthusiastic participation from many users.

However, just as the same token can have different price differences on different exchanges, before the introduction of mechanisms similar to oracles in the stock pre-market, we can clearly see that there are certain price differences for the same stock across different platforms.

Based on the above information, we can somewhat boldly make a judgment------the crypto market still lacks one or more "bridge platforms between stock pre-market trading markets."

This may be a necessary step forward in advancing the tokenization of stocks and the tokenization of the stock pre-market------a unified comprehensive platform covering pre-market trading in traditional financial markets and pre-market trading in the crypto market.

Next, we will take the two leading prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, which are seeking $20 billion in financing, as well as SpaceX (xAI), valued at $1.25 trillion, as examples to explore the feasibility and real demand of this "entrepreneurial direction."

Comparing the pre-market price differences of the three platforms: maximum price difference rate over 50%, prices differing by nearly $150

Kalshi Pre-Market Price Difference: Up to $148, Price Difference Rate Around 37%

Taking the Kalshi pre-market trading market as an example, its prices on different platforms are as follows------

On the PreStocks platform, the pre-market price of the stock token is around $397; (compared to the $369 we reported a month ago in "Kalshi Trading Volume Continues to Break New Highs, What is a Reasonable Pre-Market Stock Price?", it has increased by nearly $30, a rise of 7.6%）

On the Jarsy platform, the pre-market price of the stock is around $545. (compared to the $504 we reported a month ago in "Kalshi Trading Volume Continues to Break New Highs, What is a Reasonable Pre-Market Stock Price?", it has increased by over $40, a rise of 8.1%）

In other words, the pre-market price of Kalshi stock has a price difference of up to $148 between the two major trading platforms （Note from Odaily Planet Daily: Considering that the two platforms adopt order book trading mechanisms and on-chain liquidity token trading mechanisms respectively, we are only making an abstract comparison here, without involving specific asset transfer forms, the same applies below）. If calculated against the $360 price of the traditional financial market pre-market trading platform Hiive, the price difference could be as high as $185.

Polymarket Pre-Market Price Difference: Up to $94, Price Difference Rate Over 50%

Taking the Polymarket pre-market trading market as an example, its prices on different platforms are as follows------

On the PreStocks platform, the pre-market price of the stock token is around $186 (Note from Odaily Planet Daily: the increase in the last 30 days is 23%);

On the Jarsy platform, the pre-market price of the stock is around $280.

In other words, the pre-market price of Polymarket stock has a price difference of about $94 between the two major platforms, with a price difference rate of approximately 50.5%.

SpaceX (xAI) Pre-Market Price Difference: About $75, Price Difference Rate 12.7%

Taking SpaceX (xAI) as an example, its prices on different platforms are as follows------

On the PreStocks platform, the pre-market price of the stock token is around $666 (Note from Odaily Planet Daily: the increase in the last 30 days is 4.1%);

On the Tessera platform, the pre-market price of the stock token is currently reported at around $591 (Note from Odaily Planet Daily: the increase in the last 30 days is approximately 14.5%).

In other words, the pre-market price of SpaceX stock has a price difference of about $75 between the two major platforms, with a price difference rate of approximately 12.7%.

In summary, based on the existing pre-market trading platforms, it may be possible to build a crypto stock pre-market price difference market, which, after having sufficient pre-market tokens or pre-market equity capital, can meet the market's trading and speculation needs.

Of course, considering that the current market liquidity is still within the million-dollar range, the main business model of this platform may remain focused on trading fees or LP fees and the realization of price differences in the platform's own investment amounts.